Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 2, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: The sharps and the model was right. The Phillies continued to roll and won 5-3.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it's going to usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

Today's game which the sharps and my betting model agree on is the over 7 in Seattle. Surprisingly, SEA and OAK are 6th and 9th in runs scored in the L7 days and the A's just put up 13 runs in their last 2 games. Let's not get too excited, the A's are second-last in runs scored this season. The Mariners are 8-1 on the over in Kirby's last 9 starts. Blackburn loves to play on the road. He's 5-0 with an ERA of 1.44 and a WHIP of 1.06. Looking at his last 3 starts, his numbers aren't that great and it's due to a 9-0 beating on June 22 where he gave up 7 ER to the Mariners. Kirby is taking the mount versus a team that the Mariners beat 20 out last 26 and 17 out last 19. He also pitched on June 22 and he looked solid pitching 6 innings, giving up 5 hits and 0 ER. In his following game, he barely lasted 4 innings and gave up 7 ER to the Orioles. My model has this game at 7.72 runs and there is some value at 7 however I do expect this number to move to 7.5. In conclusion, we have 2 pitchers that have been rocked in their last 3, Oakland's offense is hot, sharp are riding them and Seattle's offense is finally getting that positive regression and scored 17 runs in their last 2 games. I'm taking the over!

Good luck today

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