Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 13, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: Astros ML and Red Sox over 7

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

Late Tuesday night the sharp are starting to accumulate interest on a huge dog. My model agrees on the value but I'd never bet on this. You ready?? The Reds!!! Sharp started betting on them in at range of +270. I mean, I'd throw them in a crazy parlay but to play them straight up I'm not sure. Minor vs Severino. Minor has an ERA of close to 7 and a WHIP of 1.42. He's a lefty and the Yankees are smashing LHP with a BA of .313 L10 games. The Reds are coming in New York winning their last 4 while the Yankees lost their last 2 in Boston.

On the safer side, sharps have also shown interest on the Braves. Betonline opened the Braves at -130 on Tuesday afternoon and sharps pushed the line to -150. Personally, I'm not a Bassitt fan. He's given up 13 HR already this season, that is 2 less then last year with 60 innings pitched less. At this rate he's going to give up 20+ HRs. He's 4-2 on the road with an ERA of over 5 and LHH have been hitting him with a BA of close to .300 and .418 wOBA. Morton is turning 50 tomorrow and….. I'm kidding, he's just 38 and it's not his birthday. My point, since June 17th, he's been pitching like a youngster. He's pitched 7 inning in 4 of his last 5 starts, and hasn't given up over 2 runs in those starts. In his last 3 starts, he has an ERA of 1.83 and a WHIP of 1.02. I don't agree with my model, it has the Braves at -117 therefore the value in on the Mets. It's sharps + Anthony vs the model!! Which side are you on?

Good luck today

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