Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 12, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: No plays to review

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

Much busier day on Tuesday and the sharps already jumped on 3 sides. Houston, Baltimore and Washington were steamed during the afternoon. Washington is facing the hot Mariners with Flexen on the mount and the sharps prefer Gray in this matchup. Flexen pitched very well versus the Padres and he has a hot offense to back him up and he's won his last 3 starts. There is no value behind the Nationals and the model shows value on the Mariners with a +EV of +7%. So we don't agree here.

After some square money came on the Cubs, the sharps took a position on the Orioles at +106. Lyles has only given up 2 runs in his last 2 games however his away splits are not good with an ERA of close to 6 and a WHIP of 1.45. Sampson has yet to get a decision in 22 innings pitched this year. He threw really well versus the Brewers and he's been consistent. My model is not showing any value on this game but it will be interesting to see how the Orioles play now they are on the road. They just swept the Angels and Ranger but lost 3 of the last 4 on the road and they are 18-27 vs 25-17 at home. The Cubs just got swept and are hitting .159 versus RHP in the last 5 games.

The last game is where the sharps and model agree. There is some value on the Astros but not much. The last time these teams met it was no contest for the Astros. They completely destroyed the Angels and they are now catching in an even worst spot just getting swept by the Orioles. Anaheim's offense sank to 25th, batting .174 versus LHP and .190 versus RHP in their last 10 games and clearly the worst wRC+ in the last 14. Garcia is not having his best season but he has an elite bullpen to support him. He's been better on the road with an ERA of at 2.37 versus 5.05 at home. Noah can't make miracles, he needs run support. It's going to be a tough one for him versus the Astros that have been batting close to .300 versus RHP in the last 10 games. He's been much better at home versus on the road. My lean is on the Astros until the Angels start showing some kind of life.

UPDATE:

The RedSox over 7 -120 was steamed in the offshore markets not too long. My model has this game at 8.17 therefore there was value at 7. We still have +7.12 on the total at 7.5. Sale is pitching and I'd like to see in a couple of starts before adjusting my projections. The Rays hit the ball well today and we can always count on the RedSox to put up close to 5 runs per game. Kluber is set to start for the Rays and he was dominant in his last outing against the same RedSox. I'll sit this one out.

Good luck today

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