Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 11, 2022

2 years ago

Anthony P

While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: Kremer and Sandoval were fantastic but the O's took the game and the sharps and model were right. The other game was the over 6.5 in San Diego. I didn't agree and made an argument on the under. Turns out I was right and the sharps were wrong.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

It's a small slate on Monday. The sharps have been active however the handles are still small. We don't have a pick where both the sharps and model agree on however the sharps did take a position on the Over 9.5 in KC, the under 7 in Atlanta and the over 11.5 in Colorado.

Based on my model, the projections are on the opposite side of what the sharps like. In the ATL game, the total opened at 7.5 and dropped to 7 and we don't see a big gap there however in the KC and COL games we see that my model is projecting these games to go under by 1.5 runs opening up some interesting +EV on the under in both games.

I guess it's one of those days where it's going to be Sharps vs Model!!!