Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 9, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: I hope tonight's game of the day is as straightforward as yesterday's. The Flyers struggled offensively, and as a result, the game remained under the 6.5 total.

Today's action across the NHL, NBA, and college basketball is particularly rich with opportunities and line movements, capturing the attention of bettors everywhere.

NHL: A Day of Notable Value and Shifts

The Blue Jackets have emerged as an unexpected value pick, with their moneyline initially dropping from +220 to +200, only to see the Jets garnering action, swinging the line back slightly. Meanwhile, the Kings, facing off against a defensively weakened Lightning, witnessed their odds shift from -106 to -121. Despite the lack of sharp money, a staggering 90% of public tickets are on the Kings, indicating significant public confidence.

In an unusual turn for back-to-back games, the Canucks, playing their second road game in as many nights, haven't seen the expected line movement in favor of the Islanders. Instead, the line dipped from -128, and the total escalated from 6 to 6.5, with sharp money leaning towards the over. The Panthers, on a formidable streak in their 5-game road trip, have seen their odds strengthen from -160 to -180 against St. Louis, highlighting their perceived dominance.

NBA: Smart Money and Steaming Totals

In Orlando, a significant line movement caught eyes as the total nosedived from 222.5 to 216.5, despite a lack of sharp money, suggesting under might be the way to go. Over in New York, the total opened at 228, dropped to 226, and then adjusted to 226.5 after sharp action. With 70% of the handle on the under, this game is poised for an intriguing finish.

College Basketball: Unpredictable Lines and Smart Bets

The line movements in Georgetown's matchup are puzzling, with the team opening as a 4.5-point underdog and then moving against them to -7, despite a significant handle in their favor. Sharps stepping in at +7 adds to the game's unpredictability. West Virginia, initially a 3-point underdog, saw a positive shift to +1.5 following smart money, making it a game to watch. Cincinnati experienced a significant adjustment late last night, moving from -4 to -5.5, with the handle rebalancing at the new line.

Game of the day:

As the Los Angeles Kings gear up to face the Tampa Bay Lightning, all signs point towards a potential turnaround for the Kings, who are desperately seeking to snap their five-game losing streak. Here’s why tonight's game could be the moment the Kings regain their footing.

Kings' Recent Struggles: A Springboard for Success

Despite their recent downturn, there's more to the Kings than meets the eye. Losing five consecutive games, including two in overtime, and blowing leads, the Kings have shown they can compete but have just fallen short in finishing games. They've held leads in their last two defeats and have consistently outshot their opponents, a sign of offensive persistence.

The Edge in Goalkeeping and Defense

Goalie Cam Talbot has been a bright spot for the Kings, boasting an impressive 2.17 GAA and a .923 save percentage. His performance has been a critical factor in the Kings ranking first in limiting opponents to 2.4 goals per game. This solid defense, coupled with Talbot's skill, gives the Kings a substantial edge against a Lightning team that has been conceding an average of 3.4 goals per game.

Lightning's Inconsistency: An Opening for the Kings

The Tampa Bay Lightning's season has been marked by inconsistency. With a record of 5-5 in their last ten games and recent defensive struggles, the Lightning are showing vulnerabilities the Kings can exploit. Notably, veteran netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy has been inconsistent, which could be advantageous for the Kings' offense.

Kings’ Offensive Potential

Despite their recent scoring drought, the Kings have the firepower to turn things around. Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe have been key offensive players, with Kempe in a particularly good groove, scoring three goals in his last three games. The Kings’ depth at center ice, boasting three lines that pose a scoring threat, could be a game-changer against the Lightning's shaky defense.

The Road Factor

Interestingly, the Kings have been more effective on the road, holding a remarkable 13-3-1 record in away games. This road warrior status might be exactly what they need to reset and find their winning ways.

Matchup Dynamics

The matchup against the Lightning is favorable for the Kings. With the Lightning missing key defensemen and struggling in goal, the Kings’ strong defensive play and their depth in the center position give them a competitive edge. Furthermore, the Kings' defensive stats, with an xGA/60 minutes of only 2.74 goals allowed, second in the NHL, underscore their capability to shut down the Lightning’s offense.

Conclusion

Tonight's game presents an ideal opportunity for the Los Angeles Kings to bounce back. Their solid goaltending, defensive prowess, and potential offensive resurgence, combined with the Lightning's defensive woes, position the Kings favorably in this matchup. As they take on the Lightning, expect the Kings to capitalize on their strengths and potentially secure a much-needed victory on the road. For sports bettors, the Kings on the money line is a compelling pick in what’s shaping up to be a closely contested game.

RECAP: LA KINGS -115

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