Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 8, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: We are back for another crazy week!

In the dynamic and ever-surprising world of sports betting, today stands out as a particularly intriguing day. We're not just talking about one sport, but four, each bringing its unique twists and turns to the betting landscape.

NHL: Penguins and Avalanche in the Spotlight

In the NHL, all eyes are on the Pittsburgh Penguins. The public has shown overwhelming support for the Pens, with their odds notably shifting from -111 to -125 this morning. A staggering 90% of the handle and 80% of the tickets are backing them, a clear indicator of public confidence.

But wait, there's more. The Colorado Avalanche also demands attention. Despite the Boston Bruins holding 65% of the tickets, the line is curiously moving towards the Avs, from -111 to -129. This intriguing movement suggests that, in other markets, the 'smart money' is betting on the Avalanche. This raises an essential question: Why is the line favoring the Avs when the Bruins are the bookies' liability?

NBA: Celtics and Jazz Stir the Pot

Shifting gears to the NBA, the Boston Celtics are causing a stir in the betting world. With players like Tatum and Porzingis listed as questionable, the market is reacting swiftly. The Celtics, initially a 6-point favorite against Indiana, saw their advantage drop to -3, then adjusted to -3.5. This fluctuation is a clear response to the uncertainty surrounding their key players.

Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz's odds saw a notable change with the news of Damian Lillard's absence. The line dramatically fell from +11 to 8.5, despite no sharp money on the Jazz. Interestingly, the smart money has gravitated towards betting on the under, a strategic move considering the circumstances.

CBB: Unpredictable Movements

In college basketball, the betting scene is less intense this morning, but still noteworthy. A few games saw significant line movements. New Orleans, for instance, moved from -1 to -3.5, enjoying a robust 87% of the handle's backing. Similarly, Delaware experienced a jump from a pick to -3. However, this triggered a reverse line movement since 80% of the handle is surprisingly on Morgan State.

Game of the day

As the Pittsburgh Penguins gear up to face their intra-state rivals, the Philadelphia Flyers, all signs point towards a game that's more about defense than high-scoring action. With the total opening at 6.5, sharp bettors have already shown their hand by leaning heavily towards the under.

The Defensive Stalwarts

Both teams have been remarkable in their defensive efforts this season. Tied for sixth in the league, allowing just 2.74 goals per game, they've achieved this feat through distinct strategies. The Penguins, allowing 30.5 shots per game, boast the eighth-best penalty kill at 83.1% and concede the fourth-fewest penalty minutes. The Flyers, despite spending more time in the penalty box, counter with the second-best penalty kill and the fifth-fewest shots on goal.

Goalie Showdown

The goaltenders for both teams have been nothing short of impressive. Tristan Jarry of the Penguins and Carter Hart of the Flyers each hold a .912 save percentage and GAA's of 2.60 and 2.63, respectively. With four shutouts to Jarry's name and both teams ranking lower in goals scored, the goalies are set to play a pivotal role in keeping the score low. Keep an eye on Jarry's status since they might go with Ned tonight but this doesn't change much in my projections.

Offensive Insights

On the offensive front, the Penguins have shown sparks of brilliance with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel leading the charge. However, their overall ranking at 20th in goals per game contrasts sharply with their defensive prowess. The Flyers, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, ranking 25th in goals per game despite decent shot generation.

Historical Precedence

History sides with a lower-scoring affair, as the under has hit in five of the last six contests between these two teams. The Flyers' solid defense and goaltending, along with the Penguins' balanced approach, suggest a game where goals will be hard to come by.

Conclusion

Tonight's game in Philadelphia is shaping up to be a classic defensive battle. With both teams excelling at keeping the puck out of their nets and the sharp bettors' focus on the under, we're in for a tightly contested match that's likely to undershoot the 6.5 goal mark. Prepare for an intense, strategic game where every shot and save counts.

RECAP: FLYERS UNDER 6.5

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