Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 7 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Sharps were right again on the Penguins. It was total domination from them. They were also right about the Devils but it wasn't that easy for them. It was a crazy game in Dallas. I liked Florida just like the sharps however I ididn't pull the trigger since the line was inflated. I'm glad I didn't. In the NBA we covered a big line change without knowing why, my guess was Curry being out and that's what happened.

WASHINGTON / ST LOUIS TOTAL

It is very rare to see a jump of one full goal in an NHL total. Market makers opened the total in this game 5.5 yesterday morning. Sharp hit the over and moved the total at 6. This morning even more sharp money came on the over pushing this total to 6.5 -103. My first instinct was that the Blues were suiting up a 3rd string goalie however it's not the case for now since Samsonov and Binny are projected. Both teams hold a top 5 offense scoring on average 3.50 goals per game while the Blues are just behind Colorado with 3.82 GF/G at home. The over is 7-3 in their last H2H however last 2 goals went under but doesn't mean shit those games were in 2019. The Caps haven't scored a PP goal since Dec 15th while the Blues have scored one in 3 straight. Sharps and squares like the over. Max bet limits are high enough for the book to feel comfortable taking bigger bets. I don't see this total moving down. My model has this total at 6.02 and there is 5.42% EV on the under. Let's see who's right tonight.

DENVER NUGGETS and the OVER

The Nuggets opened at -6 at 5 Dimes yesterday afternoon and the game didn't draw much interest from sharp until overnight and this morning. The Nuggets are 15-20 ATS this season and covered once when they are 8+ pts favourites. Both teams historically play a high-paced game which leads to many points and Sacramento has done a good job sticking around. The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their L5 vs the Nuggets. With that said the Nuggets line jumped to -8.5 this morning and I expect some Kings money to come in. My model has the Nuggets at -6 therefore we have some value on the Kings. Also, the over was hit by sharps at 222.5 and 223.5. It's now at 225.5. My model has this total at 217 and doesn't support the move however handicapping this game and match-ups I can make a case on the interest on the over.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

The so hot Cavs have not been so hot lately losing 4 of their last 5 and not covering a single game in their last 5. Portland is 1-5 SU and ATS in their last 6 and hasn't looked good without their stars PG and SG missing due to injuries. Based on the line movement we can assume that Nance JR will not be playing. My NBA model has the Cavs at -7 and the line move according to my model projections however the value is lost. Sharps took interest in the -4 and -4.5, however, have been quiet since then. The Cavs have been extremely efficient on defense this year and portland can be in for a long night. The Cavs own 80% of the handle and the max bet limits have not fully opened so we can see more movement in the afternoon.

Good luck tonight

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