Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 6 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

We can't blame the sharp for the Bucks since the Giannis news came in late and but then the line moved the other way. I love to look at the line movement when this happens since it gives me the opportunity to update my player's model based on the book's evaluation of a player's worth on the spread. Giannis is worth between 4.5 to 6 pts on a spread. Sharps were right about the Penguins who have now won 9 straight. The sharps smashed the Nuggets closing line however Utah won straight up.

Today there is too much to cover again and it's hard to scale down to a couple of games. Sharps were very very busy overnight.

In the NHL:

• The Penguins are trying to make it 10 straight vs the Flyers tonight that will still be missing Giroux, Hart, Couturier and Provonov. The Pens are red out and that without their full second line... that scary! Jarry will be in nets tonight, he's been great all season. The markets makers opened the Pens at -195 and sharps smashed it forcing books to move it 25 pts. It's at -225 now holding 90% of the handle. My NHL model has the Pens at -178 however even if we see value on the Flyers I'd leave it alone. Don't mess with the Pens

• New Jersey Devils: and again sharps like to bet on the undervalued Devils. They looked good vs CAR, EDM and NSH. All surprise wins. CBJ is 1-4 in their last 5 however they are 10-1 SU in their L11 when playing in Jersey. Both D's are terrible and allow 3.50 GA per game. Werenski and Hamilton are out in this game which will affect the offense and defense. Market makers opened the Devils a -124 favourites and the line initially went down to -108 and that's when they took a position. They smashed the -108, -111, -120 and -131. My model has the Devils at -111 therefore I don't really agree with this move and we have value on CBJ.

• Florida Panthers: This is my new favourite team. I love watching them play so much that I think that when this C19 shit is over I'm going to Florida and watch them play. It's a tough game in Dallas tonight and FLA is not the exact same team on the road scoring almost 2 goals less per game vs at home. Dallas is 11-3 at home this year and has the 6th best D at home this season. The Starts haven't played in a while and maybe that's why the sharps like Florida. Panthers opened at -107 and got hit at -113 and -123. The line is now -135 on low max bet limits. My NHL model has the Panthers at -123 therefore the line moved towards the model's projections however the line is a little inflated now

In the NBA we have one major move. The Warriors opened at -7.5 and the line dropped to -2. I don't see any sharp money on the Pelicans. The Warriors played a tough game yesterday. Is Curry out tonight? That would make sense IMO.

Good luck tonight

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