Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 5 2022
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline beforeeveryone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.
Back to our regular format today!
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
This has been pretty common this season with teams playing on back to back games. Books always seem to come up short with their lines. The Raptors won a big one vs the Spurs last night and now need to travel to Milwaukee. Milddleton is expected back in the lineup. Market makers opened the Bucks a 7.5 favourite yesterday afternoon and sharp started taking a position on them in the early evening pushing the line to -8.5. Max bet limits are still low and the early money is on the Raptors which indicates the public likes Toronto however sharp money is on the Buck. The Raptors are 4-1 ATS on zero days rest and coming in with good momentum. The Bucks won 6 straight before losing to the Pistons...My NBA model has the Bucks at -5.5 therefore we have some value on the Raptors and it doesn't agree with the early move favouring the Bucks.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
The Pens winner of 8 straight is currently one of the top teams in the NHL and that Crosby line looked really good vs the Sharks. The Blues are 1 game over .500 on the road and are a different team than when they are playing on home ice. The Blues allows 0.71 more goals on the road than on then at home however they have a top 5 PK and that should contain the Pens 27th PP. Betonline opened the Pens a -110 favourites and the sharps jumped on them. The line is now at -137 and the bet limits are still low. My NHL model has the Pens at -141 and I believe this line will keep on moving with same square money that will be coming in on the Penguins.
We have a big stale in the NBA and not much has happened overnight or early morning. The only game we saw the sharps attack was the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets opened a 6 point dog yesterday afternoon and overnight the sharps hit the +6 and +5. The line settled at +3.5 and it might still go down. Utah has a bunch of questionable guys for tonight including Gobert. My NBA model has the JAzz at -4 therefore I agree with the move!
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