Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 31, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: I wish they were all easy like yesterday's pick. Ohio dismantled Buffalo by 21 and it was an easy cover.

As a sports betting enthusiast, keeping a keen eye on recent trends and game analyses is crucial. After watching the NHL highlights yesterday, I've observed a noticeable lack of engagement among the teams since the return of the winter game. This lack of enthusiasm is something that bettors cannot easily predict or handicap, which makes betting on these games a risky venture. Today, there are three NHL games on the schedule, but there's been minimal movement in the betting lines, and the volume of bets placed at bookmakers is relatively low. However, my NHL model favors Detroit, and I will delve deeper into this prediction in an exclusive NHL model article available to our PRO subscribers.

Shifting focus to the NBA, it's a busy day with a substantial slate of games, with only the Chicago Bulls who are playing back-to-back nights. Yesterday, the sharp bettors made significant gains in the NBA, and according to the sharp report, they have already moved on two sides and four totals overnight and this morning. The Bulls' performance yesterday was underwhelming, and after an overnight travel to Charlotte, they opened as a 3-point favorite, which moved to -4 this morning. If Ball is in the lineup, expect this line to drop.

In another interesting development, the New Orleans Pelicans have caught the attention of sharp bettors. They opened at -3.5 and dropped to -2.5, prompting the sharps to place their bets on New Orleans at -2.5.

Over in the world of college basketball (CBB), Orlando held up to 90% of the handle at the opening bell, but it appears that the smart money outside of the book is favoring the Spurs. Despite opening as a 6-point home underdog, the Spurs' line has fluctuated significantly, dropping to 3.5 this morning before settling back at 4.

One particular game in Kentucky is showing important line movement in CBB. Kentucky opened as a 7-point favorite and saw the line shift to -6.5 in the afternoon and then to -5.5 last night. Interestingly, despite having 85% of the handle, the line moved in Florida's favor, indicating a potential upset.

Meanwhile, New Mexico saw a jump from -9.5 to -11 this morning but only holds 35% of the handle. Notably, there's no sharp money on them at the book, which could signal caution to bettors.

Lastly, Missouri has been steamed in the markets both last night and this morning. They opened at -3 and quickly moved to -4.5, reaching -5.5 by night time. Some books have even posted a -6 this morning, suggesting a strong belief in their performance.

Game of the day:

In the ever-evolving landscape of the NBA, where sharp money often dictates market movements, there's a compelling case to be made for the Houston Rockets as they prepare to face off against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. Despite the sharp money leaning heavily towards the Pelicans after the line shifted from -3.5 to -2.5, a deeper analysis suggests that the Rockets hold significant advantages that could not only lead to covering the spread but also a straight-up win.

The Rockets have demonstrated remarkable resilience and improvement following a rough patch earlier in the season. Their recent performance, highlighted by a decisive 16-point victory over the Los Angeles Lakers, underscores a team that's finding its rhythm. Winning two of their last three games and boasting a 4-1 record against the spread in their last five outings, Houston's upward trajectory is evident. The team's health has been a key factor in this resurgence. This near-full strength lineup for the Rockets hints at their potential to escalate their performance further in the upcoming games.

On the other side, the Pelicans are experiencing a downturn, losing three consecutive games and four of their last five. Their struggles are apparent on both ends of the court, but it's their defense that raises concerns, especially when facing a Houston team that's gaining offensive momentum. The Rockets' defensive tenacity will likely compound the Pelicans' offensive woes, further tipping the scales in Houston's favor.

Historically, this season, the Rockets have had the Pelicans' number, winning both matchups straight-up and against the spread, including a notable victory as 7.5-point underdogs in New Orleans on December 23. These results not only demonstrate Houston's ability to outperform expectations but also reveal a psychological edge that could influence tonight's game.

Moreover, Houston's recent offensive surge, coupled with a solid defense and an aggressive rebounding strategy, positions them as favorites in their home arena. The Rockets' home record of 17-8 straight-up and 16-8-1 against the spread at the Toyota Center further bolsters their case.

Given these factors, the Rockets appear primed to extend their winning streak against the Pelicans. While respecting the insights of sharp bettors is usually prudent, there are instances, like this one, where an in-depth analysis reveals a compelling contrarian perspective. With the Rockets' current form, strategic advantages, and historical dominance in this matchup, betting against the sharp money in favor of Houston covering the spread seems not only justified but potentially lucrative.

RECAP: Houston +2.5

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