Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 30, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: My sympathies go out to anyone who bet on the under in yesterday's Texas game – it was a tough loss to swallow. The total had closed at 129.5, and with just two seconds on the clock, Houston found themselves at the free-throw line, trailing by a mere two points with the scoreboard showing 128. All eyes were on Emanuel Sharp, with the under backers hoping he'd miss at least one of his free throws. But, defying those hopes, Sharp sank both shots, pushing the game into overtime. It's hard not to point fingers at Kadin Shedrick for that ill-timed foul that set up this nail-biting scenario.

As the NHL heads into its winter break, with most teams off the ice until February 6th, today's slim slate features only two games. One of these has seen significant line movement: the odds for the Columbus Blue Jackets have notably shifted from +156 to +135 this morning. This adjustment is particularly intriguing, considering that a whopping 90% of the betting handle is on the St. Louis Blues. Such a move in the odds, contrary to the heavy betting on the Blues, suggests an undercurrent of confidence in the Blue Jackets from certain markets.

The NHL game in Seattle tonight, which I analyzed in the NHL model article, is another interesting case. Smart money in other markets targeted the total, pushing it down from 6 to 5.5 late yesterday. This move reflects a consensus among savvy bettors on an expected lower-scoring game than initially anticipated.

Over in the NBA, the challenges of managing back-to-back games are evident, with five teams playing on consecutive nights. This scenario often leads to headaches for bettors, as load management strategies can significantly impact the betting lines. Keeping track of player rotations and last-minute lineup changes will be crucial in making informed betting decisions today.

The Boston Celtics, for instance, have seen their line move from -5.5 to -7, with Porzingis expected to return. However, the question remains whether Boston might rest some players, considering they played last night. This uncertainty adds another layer of complexity to the betting landscape.

In another NBA game, the Atlanta Hawks' line has shifted from -4.5 to -5 against the Lakers. LeBron James has expressed his desire to play tonight, despite the Lakers also being on a back-to-back schedule. Anthony Davis, meanwhile, remains a game-time decision. The movement in the line seems to indicate that both might not play, which would significantly impact the game's dynamics.

The Utah Jazz and New York Knicks, both having played last night, face their own challenges. The Jazz are reportedly healthy, but there's speculation about load management decisions that could affect their lineup. The Knicks, dealing with Anunoby's late scratch from their last game and the heavy minutes logged by several players, will be keenly watched to see if Anunoby returns and how their lineup adjusts.

In the world of college basketball, Villanova is at the center of attention in one of the day's most wagered games. Marquette, initially a -1 road favorite, has seen the line shift, making Villanova a 1.5-point favorite. The total has also moved, rising from 141.5 to 143, with the betting handle favoring both Villanova and the over. This shift reflects a growing confidence among bettors in Villanova’s chances and an expectation for a high-scoring affair.

Lastly, the game between Georgia Tech and North Carolina, although not as high-profile as the Villanova matchup, presents an interesting line movement. Georgia Tech opened as an 11.5-point home underdog, but sharp bettors have driven the line down to +8.5. This significant movement suggests a belief among informed bettors that Georgia Tech is undervalued and capable of a closer contest than initially anticipated.

In summary, today's sports betting landscape is shaped by a mix of intriguing line movements, strategic decisions influenced by player fatigue and load management, and sharp bettors' insights, all of which create a fascinating tapestry for bettors looking to find value and excitement in their wagers.

Game of the day:

Tonight's game in Ohio presents a compelling matchup with the Ohio Bobcats poised for a significant victory against the Buffalo Bulls, according to detailed analysis and projections. The sharp action early this morning on Ohio at -13.5, driving the line up to -15 in most places, indicates strong confidence in their performance, although a more favorable -14.5 can still be found with some shopping around. My model predicts a commanding 20-point win for Ohio, closely aligning with Torvik's projection of a 16-point victory, further bolstering the case for Ohio's potential dominance.

The Buffalo Bulls, currently on a six-game losing streak, are coming off a 75-65 loss against Eastern Michigan. Their struggles are evident, particularly in the second half where they allowed 40 points. Despite shooting 41.5% from the field and 24.2% from deep, their lack of free-throw attempts and defensive weaknesses are concerning. Eastern Michigan capitalized on Buffalo’s defensive lapses, shooting 50% from the field and 41.2% from beyond the arc. Buffalo's season statistics are worrisome, ranking 327th in the nation with an average of 67.1 points per game and 341st in points allowed at 79.3 per game.

Ohio, on the other hand, is coming off a solid 71-64 win against Kent State, demonstrating their capability in both halves of the game. They shot 44.8% from the field and 37.9% from the three-point line. The Bobcats' overall performance this season has been robust, with an average of 77.5 points per game (93rd in the NCAA) and a moderate defensive record of allowing 71.0 points per game.

A critical factor in this matchup is the defensive production of both teams. The Bulls have been allowing an average of 80.2 points in their last five games, while the Bobcats have held opponents to 64.8 points in their last four. Furthermore, Ohio's three-point shooting is significantly better than Buffalo's, with Ohio ranked 166th at 33.9% and Buffalo being one of the worst in the nation at 25.6%.

Given these statistics and the current form of both teams, Ohio is well-positioned to secure a win and cover the -15 spread. The Bobcats' offensive strength, combined with Buffalo's defensive struggles and poor form, sets the stage for Ohio to continue their winning momentum. The game is expected to be challenging for the Bulls, who have shown little capacity to overcome quality opponents this season. Ohio's home advantage and their recent upswing in form, winning three of their last four games, make them a formidable opponent for Buffalo. In summary, all signs point towards a decisive victory for the Ohio Bobcats in tonight’s game.

RECAP: Ohio -15

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