Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 20, 2023

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: Both the Raptors and Preds disappointed us last night as we were trying to build from a 3-0 sweep the day before. Our only win was the Bulls which were also one of my VIP bets.

Ottawa and Pittsburgh square off again but this time in Pittsburgh. Forsberg and DeSmith should get the call and that is good news for the Sens. Smart money was all other the Sens 2 days ago but I wasn't too crazy about supporting the Sens with Talbot in nets. They won in OT but Talbot gave up 4 goals on 19 freaking shots. No changes tonight, the smart money likes the Sens again versus this Pens team that has only won 3 times in the last 7 and might be missing another defenseman tonight with Rutta being questionable. Ottawa opened at +144 and the line dropped to +123 this morning.

Our biggest move in the NBA is on the Jazz moving from -4 to -7.5. My first thoughts were that Irvin might be out but it's not the case. Betonline opened the Jazz at -4 yesterday afternoon and within the first 15 minutes, they moved it to -7 with some crazy sharp money being re-wagered on low max bet limits. We did see a little buyback on the Nets overnight but this morning more sharp money landed on the Jazz and the books adjusted the line to -7.5. My model has this line at -5.5 and it's a little inflated at -7.5. The Nets have really looked bad recently and the Jazz has an efficiency differential edge of 5 pts without counting HCA. I think the line is right.


To recap: Ottawa +123, Utah -7.5

Good luck today

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