Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 2, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: Welcome the 1st edition of 2024.

Yesterday's fatigue couldn't dampen the spirit for today's analysis of an exciting slate in the world of sports betting. The day presents a mix of NHL action, NBA shifts, and college basketball bets that have caught the eyes of sharp bettors and casual fans alike.

In the NHL, we've witnessed some particularly interesting movements. The New York Rangers, despite a significant $35,000 bet from the Whale, saw their odds shift from -125 to -113, an unexpected turn considering the handles are evenly split. This suggests other factors at play influencing the odds. In Toronto, the Maple Leafs' ongoing goaltending woes, highlighted by Samsonov's recent waiver and Jones starting in LA, have led to increased backing for the Kings. Initially, at -125, their odds have improved to -135, with my model projecting a possible further increase to -150.

Surprisingly, the Ottawa Senators are gaining favor against the Vancouver Canucks, despite starting as -140 road underdogs and now at +126. With Demko starting for the Canucks, the shift towards the Senators seems puzzling, especially when my model indicates value in the Canucks at -141. Is it possible DEmko won't start?

The NBA also presents its share of intrigue, particularly in New Orleans. The line there dropped from -7 to -6, influenced by Murphy's uncertain status for the Pelicans. This adjustment reflects the sensitivity of betting lines to player availability and expected performance. Additionally, in Memphis, there's been a significant movement in the total, with the sharp report indicating heavy betting on the over 231.5. This resulted in an adjustment to 233 late last night and further to 234.5 this morning, showcasing the impact of sharp money on over/under bets.

In college basketball, North Carolina has emerged as a notable figure in the sharp report's book liability section. The line movement from -2.5 to -4.5 indicates strong sharp betting on NC, despite the book recording sharp interests on both sides. Purdue's matchup against Maryland shows a drop in the line from -7.5 to -5, with sharp bettors now heavily favoring Purdue at -5.5.

The game between Iowa and Wisconsin reveals a complex betting scenario. While the book needs Iowa, the line has been moving in their favor indicating sharp money is on Iowa, as seen by the line drop from +7.5 to +6, and some books are now posting +5.5. This game highlights the divided opinions among sharp bettors and square bettor.

Game of the day:

The sharp report signals a keen interest in the total score going over in tonight's Oklahoma City game. Sharp bettors have been actively placing their bets on the over when the line was at 239.5. With the total now standing at 240, it presents a favorable opportunity for those looking to align with the smart money's perspective.

As the Boston Celtics prepare to face the Oklahoma City Thunder, all signs point towards a high-scoring game, making a bet on the total going over an attractive proposition.

Boston's recent dismantling of the Spurs, showcased their offensive prowess once again. Their ability to score efficiently, coupled with the Celtics' strong team dynamics as highlighted by coach Joe Mazzulla, indicates their readiness to engage in a high-scoring matchup. The Celtics' dominance is further emphasized by their control over the rebounds and their status as the top team in the Eastern Conference.

On the other side, the Thunder's performance against Brooklyn was equally impressive. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey led the team with significant contributions from standout rookie Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. Their ability to execute runs, especially in the final quarters, and their efficient shooting percentage underscore their offensive strength. Holmgren's recent performances and Gilgeous-Alexander's scoring streak further solidify the Thunder as a solid offensive force.

The recent history between these two teams has been characterized by high-scoring games, with the last three encounters averaging 256.5 pts per game. This trend, along with both teams ranking in the top 6 for points per game and exhibiting fast-paced playstyles, augments the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The Celtics, despite their strong defense, tend to concede more points on the road, which could play into the Thunder's hands, especially given their 5th rank in pace over the last ten games.

Additionally, both teams' tendencies to score fast break points, suggest a fast-paced game is on the horizon. With the Thunder's Holmgren adding an extra jolt to their offense and the Celtics' willingness to engage in a faster game, it sets the stage for an exciting, high-scoring affair.

In conclusion, considering the offensive capabilities of both teams, their recent performances, and historical data, betting on the total going over seems like a well-founded choice. Expect a dynamic, fast-paced game where both the Celtics and the Thunder will likely push the score well above the line of 240, making this matchup a thrilling spectacle for basketball fans and bettors alike.

RECAP: Celtics over 240

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