Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 19, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: The Rangers lost yesterday but the score doesn't paint a full picture of what happened. This was one of those games where once you looked at all the numbers you told yourself wtf happened?

Regularly reviewing statistics the day after placing a wager, regardless of whether the outcome was a win or loss, is a crucial habit for understanding the accuracy of my analysis. When my predictions are incorrect, I delve into the details to identify any mistakes. Often, there's no clear explanation due to the unpredictable nature of sports betting. However, at times, a deeper look at the statistics reveals trends (among many other things) in recent games that I might have overlooked, leading to a lost bet.

For example, let's examine the Rangers game from yesterday. They had a significant advantage in puck possession, with a CF of 62% vs 38% ratio, and their FF% (Fenwick For percentage, a measure of shot attempt differential) was 63% compared to 37%. They also recorded a higher expected Goals For (xGF) and lower expected Goals Against (xGA). Despite these promising stats which will result in a win more often then not, they surprisingly lost 5-1. This outcome illustrates the complexity and sometimes unpredictable nature of sports betting, where even seemingly strong statistical indicators do not always guarantee a winning result.

As we delve into today’s sports betting scene, it's important to note that the NHL isn’t offering much action. However, significant developments are unfolding in the NBA and CBB, where line movements and sharp bets are drawing attention.

NHL Insights
Starting with the NHL, the focus is narrowly on the under in Chicago. Sharp money has been leaning heavily towards this, causing some sportsbooks to adjust the total down from 6 to 5.5. Interestingly, a whopping 90% of bets and the handle are backing the under, underscoring a clear consensus among bettors.

NBA Analysis
In the NBA, an initial run of my betting model suggests inflated lines across the board, with the exception of the New Orleans game. The Celtics caught the eye of four sharp bettors, influencing a shift in the line from -6 to -6.5.

The Spurs are facing challenges without Wembanyama, and with Collins’ status uncertain, the dynamics are intriguing. The Hornets, with two starters listed as game-time decisions, opened at -5 but saw the line drop to -4. This move is peculiar, considering the majority of the handle is on Charlotte, yet the line is moving contrary to this support.

A standout situation is the total in the Atlanta game. While many retail shops and Betonline set the total at 234, three other market makers opened around 227, leading to a significant market adjustment. Betonline’s 7-point discrepancy raises eyebrows, especially since Trea Young’s GTD status shouldn't impact the total to such an extent.

College Basketball Betting Trends
In college basketball, while there may not be marquee games tonight, betting activity is still robust. Wisconsin is seeing substantial action on the total from mega sharps. Xavier vs. Georgetown is also drawing interest, with early bets favoring Georgetown, pushing the line from +14 to +12.5.

Iona’s matchup witnessed a surge in bets, compelling a line shift from -5 to -8. The subsequent increase in the max bet limit to $5,000 indicates that sportsbooks are confident they've now balanced the action with this adjusted line.

Conclusion
Today’s betting landscape highlights the importance of understanding line movements and the impact of sharp money. Whether it’s the NHL's under trend in Chicago, the NBA’s inflated lines and unexpected total adjustments, or the intriguing line shifts in college basketball, staying informed and adaptable is key for any sports bettor. Stay tuned for more insights and analysis as the day unfolds in the world of sports betting.

Game of the day:

In tonight's spotlight NBA matchup at TD Garden, the Boston Celtics are set to host the Denver Nuggets. The Celtics, with a -6 edge, enter the game amidst an impressive season, boasting an impressive record, especially on their home court going 20-0 last 20 games.

Celtics' Edge in Tonight's Game
The Celtics have been unbeatable at home this season, setting a franchise record with a 20-0 SU start at TD Garden. This remarkable home-court advantage has been a cornerstone of their success, giving them a significant edge in tonight's contest. Offensively, Boston stands out with their three-pointer strategy, leading both in attempts and efficiency. This aspect of their game is particularly crucial against the Nuggets, who rank 15th in defending against three-point shots. The Celtics' strategy of minimizing rim shots, where they rank 29th, cleverly counters Denver’s strength in rim defense.

On the defensive front, Boston has been just as impressive. Ranking fifth in points allowed per game, their defense has effectively limited the quality of their opponents' shots. This could prove to be a significant hurdle for the Nuggets, who prefer scoring around the paint.

The Celtics come into this game riding a wave of momentum, having secured three consecutive wins. They've shown a balanced approach, excelling both offensively and defensively, as evidenced by limiting their opponents to an average of just 102.3 points in their recent matches, compared to Denver's allowance of 116 points.

Acknowledging the Risks and Nuggets' Potential
Despite the Celtics' favoritism, there are risks and potential for the Nuggets to cover the spread. Denver's defensive strategy focuses on curtailing three-point shots, which could disrupt Boston's primary offensive tactic. If executed effectively, this could potentially impact the Celtics' scoring flow.

Denver's record against Eastern Conference teams is noteworthy. This demonstrates their ability to adapt and succeed against teams of the Celtics' caliber. The Nuggets' ace, Nikola Jokic, has a history of strong performances against Boston, and his matchup with Porzingis could be critical in tilting the game in Denver's favor.

Moreover, as the betting line is shifting towards -6.5 or potentially -7, this increases the risk for those backing the Celtics. A better-than-anticipated performance from Denver could see them covering the spread, especially if Boston underestimates their opposition.

Conclusion
As the Celtics and Nuggets prepare to face off, Boston's strengths in their home record and offensive tactics position them as the favorites to win. However, the dynamic nature of sports betting, coupled with Denver's defensive acumen and recent performance against Eastern teams, adds a layer of uncertainty. This matchup promises to be not only exciting but also a potential showcase of strategic play and adaptation from both teams.

RECAP: Celtics -6

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