Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 16, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: SGA or not, the Lakers were winners yesterday! Let's do it again today.

In the ever-shifting world of sports betting, the recent line movements in the NHL, NBA, and college basketball offer a fascinating glimpse into the minds of bettors and the strategies of bookmakers.

NHL: Sens Catching Smart Money Against Colorado

In the NHL, the focus is on the Ottawa Senators' game against the Colorado Avalanche. The Senators, opening at +115, have seen a significant shift, now sitting at -101. This movement is particularly intriguing given that only 15% of the handle is backing them. The key factor here seems to be the challenge Colorado faces with back-to-back road games, a scenario often viewed unfavorably by sharp bettors.

NHL: Chicago's Under Gains Traction

Another notable movement in the NHL is in Chicago, where the under was heavily favored this morning. Initially set at 6u -112, it has moved to 5.5 -101, with 90% of the tickets backing the under. Interestingly, the total money wagered isn't substantial, indicating cautious betting in this matchup.

NBA: 76ers and Nuggets Draw Attention

In the NBA, with a relatively quiet slate of only three games, the Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets game stands out. The 76ers, bolstered by Joel Embiid's return, have seen their line move significantly. Initially opening at -1 against Denver, the line surged to -4.5 and then adjusted to -3. The Nuggets' uncertain lineup, with several players listed as game-time decisions, suggests this line might fluctuate further as more information becomes available.

College Basketball: South Carolina and New Mexico in the Spotlight

The college basketball scene is buzzing with some major line movements. South Carolina has seen their line jump from -4 to -7, backed by 90% of the handle. This shift indicates strong bettor confidence in South Carolina's prospects.

New Mexico also caught the attention of a sharp bettor at the book, as per the sharp report, pushing their line from -4.5 to -6. With 70% of the handle in their favor, it's clear there's considerable belief in their ability to cover the spread.

Penn State: Finding the Balance

An interesting development is seen in the game involving Penn State, which opened as a +7.5 underdog. The line has since narrowed to +5.5 at some books, balancing the handle at 50% on both sides. This movement suggests that the bookmakers may have found the equilibrium point for this matchup, reflecting equal confidence in both teams from the betting public.

Final Thoughts

These line movements provide valuable insights into the betting landscape. They reflect not just the perceptions of team strengths and weaknesses but also the strategic thinking of bettors and bookmakers alike. As these lines continue to evolve, they will undoubtedly influence betting decisions and strategies, making the sports betting world a dynamic and fascinating arena.

Game of the day:

Tonight’s matchup between Syracuse and Pittsburgh is shaping up to be a captivating encounter, with several intriguing dynamics at play. While the betting momentum seems to favor Pittsburgh, especially after the line moved from -6 to -7, there’s a compelling case for Syracuse to cover the +7 spread.

Syracuse, standing at 11-5 overall this season and tied for seventh in the ACC, has been showing solid form, winning six of their last eight games. Despite a heavy loss to North Carolina, where they shot just 36.5% from the field and turned the ball over 17 times, the Orange have demonstrated resilience and the ability to bounce back. Judah Mintz, leading Syracuse in scoring and assists, has been a pivotal figure, showcasing his scoring prowess consistently.

Offensively, Syracuse's performance has been steady, averaging over 76 points per game. Their shooting from the field and beyond the arc, while not top-tier, has been sufficient to keep them competitive. Defensively, they've been more effective, particularly in limiting opponents' three-point shooting, ranking 60th nationally in this aspect.

Contrastingly, Pittsburgh, at 10-6 overall and struggling in the ACC, has lost three of their last four games. Their recent performance against Duke, where they were significantly outshot and outplayed in the paint, raises questions about their defensive solidity. Blake Hinson and Ishmael Leggett have been key contributors for Pittsburgh, but the team's overall shooting efficiency and three-point percentage have been less impressive.

Pittsburgh's defense, while stronger in terms of points allowed and field goal percentage defense, hasn't been entirely consistent. This inconsistency could be an area Syracuse exploits, especially given

their fast-paced play, ranked 26th in the country according to KenPom’s adjusted tempo rankings. This speed could be crucial in creating scoring opportunities against Pittsburgh’s defense.

Moreover, Syracuse has already secured a win against Pittsburgh earlier this season, showcasing their ability to outplay the Panthers. Both teams are coming off tough losses, but Syracuse's quick possession play might just give them the edge they need. Their rapid playstyle and Mintz's scoring abilities could prove to be pivotal factors, especially if Pittsburgh's defense falters as it did against Duke.

In conclusion, while Pittsburgh might seem like the popular choice following the line movement and sharp betting, Syracuse’s gameplay style, led by their swift possessions and Judah Mintz's scoring talent, positions them well to cover the spread. Given Pittsburgh’s recent defensive lapses and Syracuse’s ability to score effectively, this game could very well see the Orange covering the +7 spread on the road there I don't agree with the sharp money on Pittsburgh!

RECAP: Pittsburgh -7

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