Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 15, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: Our last game of the week was a winner with the Pistons covering at home vs the Rockets who have been struggling on the road. Let's start the new week with a bang.

In the NHL, the Nashville Predators are set to visit Vegas to clash with the Golden Knights. The Preds, who opened at +123, have seen a shift in the betting line, now sitting at +107. This movement indicates a growing confidence among bettors despite the Golden Knights' strong home record of 15-5-2. However, Vegas has shown a recent inconsistency, failing to capitalize on a promising win against Boston and losing their following game to the Flames.

The Minnesota Wild, currently grappling with numerous injuries to their star players, are hosting the New York Islanders. The Islanders, initially a +109 road underdog, have seen their line move to -103, reflecting a shift in bettor sentiment. This movement comes despite both teams struggling in recent games. Interestingly, the Islanders are drawing 70% of the handle, suggesting a strong belief in their potential to upset the Wild.

Shifting to the NBA, the betting landscape remains complex and dynamic. Bookmakers are exercising caution with lower limits until late afternoon, waiting to adjust for the latest player news. For those with access to my NBA model, there are opportunities to identify early value. The Dallas Mavericks, for instance, show promise according to the model, though player availability could be a determining factor. Similarly, the Oklahoma City Thunder offer value if star player SGA is active.

In Toronto, the total for the game has seen notable movement, initially set at 237 and then rising to 243.5, briefly hitting 244.5. This fluctuation, combined with a trend of the over hitting in 6 of the Raptors' last 7 games, adds an extra layer of intrigue.

The Brooklyn game's total also experienced a shift, increasing from 218 to 221, though it hasn't attracted significant sharp interest. Both teams involved have a recent history of unders, with a combined record of 4-10 in their last 14 games.

In college basketball, the Michigan vs. Ohio State game is drawing significant attention. Ohio State opened as a 2-point road favorite, but the line has since moved to favor Michigan at -1.5, despite 60% of the handle still backing Ohio State. This line movement is a testament to the intense betting interest on both sides.

The game between Iowa and Minnesota is also under the spotlight. Starting as a pick'em, the line has shifted to favor Minnesota, now at -3. This movement indicates heavy betting on Minnesota, although sharp money is present on both sides, making it a game to watch closely.

Game of the day:

Tonight's showdown in LA is not just any regular game; it's a thrilling contest that promises to keep sports bettors on the edge of their seats. The Los Angeles Lakers are set to face off against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the stakes couldn't be higher. The Lakers, a team with a rich history and a penchant for drama, are ready to put on a show.

The Thunder are riding a wave of success, but they're about to hit a purple and gold wall. The Lakers have had the Thunder's number in recent times, boasting a 5-2 record against them in their last seven encounters. This isn't just a statistic; it's a psychological advantage, a dominance that's been established over time. Tonight, history is poised to repeat itself.

Adding spice to the mix is the uncertainty surrounding Thunder's star player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Nursing a knee problem, his participation hangs in the balance. Remember, this is a team that falters without its cornerstone; their only game without SGA this season ended in defeat, and last season's record without him was a mixed bag. His absence could very well be the turning point of the game.

But let's not forget the Lakers' dynamic duo – LeBron James and Anthony Davis. LeBron, a maestro on the court, might just orchestrate another epic performance, reminiscent of his 40-point spectacle in their last face-off against the Thunder. And Davis? When he's on, he's unstoppable. Together, they're not just players; they're a force of nature.

Yes, the stats favor the Thunder. They're shooting stars in true shooting percentage and three-point land. But stats don't win games; players do. And when LeBron and Davis are in full swing, stats take a back seat. It's about heart, grit, and the magic of the moment.

The Lakers have had their share of struggles, but adversity is where they thrive. This is a team that knows how to bounce back, especially in the familiar confines of the Crypto.com Arena. They've shown time and again that they rise to the occasion, transforming challenges into triumphs.

So, as the Thunder and Lakers prepare to battle it out, the air is thick with anticipation. For sports bettors and basketball enthusiasts alike, this game is more than just numbers and predictions; it's a spectacle, a clash of wills, a testament to the unpredictability and excitement of the sport.

Should SGA be sidelined and LeBron take the court, I'd confidently back the Lakers. Conversely, if SGA is in play, I'd steer clear of favoring the Lakers. The sharp bettors are leaning towards the Lakers, anticipating an edge with the likelihood of SGA sitting out this game.

RECAP: LA Lakers -1

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