Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 14 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Sharps were dead wrong on the Pens which took a beating in LA. And oh my did the Kings look good. They dominated the whole game. Nucks were a great value play and with Palat and Mcdonagh out of the lineup it made sense the line moved toward the Canucks however they stood no chance vs the Lighting. Sharps and my model were right about the Clippers and Pelicans under. Clippers laid another egg scoring less than 90 points in 3 of the last 5 games.

Today we will take a quick overview of games where we see sharp money, compare to the model and see if it agrees with the move.

In the NHL we only have 3 games and one HUGE -550 favourite (LOL). Colorado opened at -425 and got smashed in the offshore sharp markets. Sharps slapped the line from -425 to -515. It now sits at -550. My model has the Avs a -500 favourite. Looks like there is value on the Coyotes at +470 however they stand no chance vs the top-scoring team in the league. Wait..... didn't we think the same vs the Leafs? Can Vejmelka pull another miracle?? Look for him to be a little more owned than the 2% he was in DFS last game.

The Ducks are finally healthier and they are on the road facing the Wild who have won 2 straight after going on a 5 game losing streak. Stolaez and Kahkonen are projected to start. My model has the Wild a -156 favourite. 5dimes opened the Wild a -200 fav and the sharps jumped on the Ducks and the value. The Ducks line was steamed at +190, +155 and +135. The Wild is now a -155 fav and in line with my model's projection.

In the NBA we have a big slate. The first game that stands out is the total in Philadelphia. It opened at 214 at Betonline and it's now sitting at 210.5. Sharps were on the under 214 and 212. My model has this game at 210 and it agrees with the sharp interest.

The Primetime match-up tonight will be in Chicago. The Warriors are on a b2b and they got completely smashed last night. Who was expecting that seriously?? Curry is probable, Green is out. Bulls opened a -1.5 fav yesterday and by mid-afternoon, it was a -4. The move had nothing to do with last night's performance. Which team will bounce back from a terrible game? The Bulls are more rested and they are 17-6 on a one-day rest. My model has the Bulls a -2.5 fav however if this line keeps on going up we might find value on the Warriors especially if Curry is expected to play.

In college basketball, it's been a quiet night and morning. Rider opened a -2.5 fav and now they are +1 at Betonline. The total jumped 2 pts in Richmond while the total dropped 2 points in Illinois. Sugarhouse opened UNLV at -1 and that line swang to +1.5. Max bet limits are very very low in CBB. We should see more movement this afternoon.

Good luck tonight

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