Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 13 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

It's was a close one however the sharps were right about supporting the Magic. The line closed at +6.5 and they covered by 1/2 a point. Sharps were also right about the over in San Antonio. It opened at 226, closed at 234 and finished at 252 points. in college basketball where swings are insane, Cincinnati did go over however sharps got burnt with Florida and Northwestern.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

Either the books are undervaluing the Pens or overvaluing the Kings. It's scary to see the Pens get healthier. Malkin had one hell of a game last game and he looked great. The Kings have been playing great offense and defense at home this year and they won 4 of 5 at home since Dec 30th. The Pens are currently the hottest team and their offense is in full swing (ok so let's add Malkin to that) They are 9-1 in their last 10, 14-4-3 on the road this year and have the 8th best offense on the road. This should be a great game since both teams have been dominating their opponent. My initial run of my NHL model has the Pens at -122. It seems the market makers lacked respect towards the Pens, they opened them -117 favourites yesterday afternoon and sharps slammed the -117 and -128 pushing the line to -145.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS

This is a long shot but for those that like to include big dogs in parlays or to pick that one off crazy goalie in gpps this is the game you want to target. There is not a ton to write about that the Lighting got Kuch back and just line Malkin, the Russian did not wait to get involved and mashed the DFS slate. What we need to know here is that one big market maker opened the Lighting a -313 favourite and sharps have jumped on the Canucks value and pushed the line down to -223. Tampa is still a huge favourite however, holding 80% of the handle and the line dropping almost 90 pts it's worth sharing this information. My model shows a +9.41 EV on Vancouver and the Lighting are projected to be a -187 fav therefore there was definitely value on the Canucks.

LA CLIPPERS / NEW ORLEANS PELICANS UNDER

It's been tough for the Clippers to generate offense and stay consistent without Leonard and George. They will score over 100 pts in one game and come back with an 87 or 89 point performance. The Pelicans have averaged about 104 points per game before going bananas and scoring 218 vs the TWolves. The Clippers have played the under in 4 of their last 6 games maintaining an FG% of just slightly over 40% however we can't take away from them their defensive play and they rank 5th on the road. Market makers opened this total at 217 yesterday afternoon and it's dropped 3 pt since then. The under 217, 216.5 and 215 were hit by the sharps. My model has this total at 210 and it agrees with the sharps interest.

Good luck tonight

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