Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 11 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Sharps were wrong with the Jazz. I dropped some stats and trends supporting Detroit. I'm not a big fan of trends however if the timing is right they might provide some additional information to help you pull the trigger. Gobert being out of the lineup is an issue for the Jazz. They gave up 126 points to the Pistons....... the freaking PISTONS!!! Colorado came thru for the sharp but it wasn't an easy one. College basketball moves went 2-2 for the sharps.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

The penguins were brought back down to earth by Dallas after winning 9 straight and basically dominating every single opponent. The Ducks got a little healthier while the Pens have lost Rust, Guenzel is questionable and Malkin might be back. Stolarz is projected to start this evening and the sharp find there was value on the Pens at the opening. The Pens opened a -125 favourite yesterday morning and sharp immediately smashed the -130,-136, -146 and -152 early this morning. The book finally pushed the line at -175. Max bet limits are almost fully opened for this game and 90% of the handle is on Pittsburgh. My betting model has the Pens a -120 however that is without Stolarz and potential Malkin and Guenzel playing. I will update the model after their morning practice. Make sure you join the discord server and ask for a follow-up in one of the free channels. The Pens have been dominant lately however the Ducks have been just as dominant at home sporting a 12-5-4 record.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

The Leafs looked really impressive in their last outing in Colorado however pulled a typical Leafs, lost the lead and lost in OT. The Leafs have a top 3 defense and will visit one of the top offensive teams in the league that will be without 2 of their top scorers. Without Patches and Stoner they are 2-3 and focused more on playing a defensive game allowing the opposition 22 SOG per game in their last 3. The Leaf's offense has been on fire scoring close to 5 goals per game in their last 5 games. Their power play is staying hot scoring at least 1 power-play goal in their last 5. Vegas hasn't had much success versus the Leafs losing 4 out of the last 5 and playing 3 straight under in H2H. Lehner and Campbell are projected to start tonight. Marner is questionable for tonight's game and if he plays it will change my projections by 2-3.5%. Market makers opened the Leafs a +113 dog yesterday and sharps did not waste any time in hammering them at +113, +100 and -107 is where sharps took a position. The Leafs are now a -125 favourite at Betonline with high max bet limits. My NHL model has this game at even without Marner, Patches and Stoner (+ the projected Goalies to start)

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

There is not much happening in the NBA this morning nor overnight. We have one game where the sharp mind took interest. The Pelicans have covered their last 2 games however they are 1-4 in their last 5 and will be facing a hot Minnesota team who is 4-1 in L5 and covered 4 of their last 5 games. They have been dominant lately winning their last 4 games by an average margin of 18.5 points. I expected my model and the line to be higher but It's not the case. My NBA model has Minnesota at -3 and the line opened at -1.5 at 5dimes and sharp money moved the line to -3. The handle and ticket count is over 75% for Minnesota. I believe this line will go up to the -4 to -5 range. I support the sharp money in this game.

Good luck tonight

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