Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 10, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: Last night was rough, the Kings blew yet another lead in the 3rd and lost 3-2 in OT after dominating the whole game. Next!

Tonight’s sports betting scene presents a contrasting picture between the NHL and NBA. With only three games on the NHL schedule, the silence from the sharps is palpable, whereas the NBA’s bustling slate of 10 games has the sharp report buzzing with activity.

NHL: The Calm Before the Storm

In the NHL, it's a relatively calm night with no sharp interest detected in the early run of the reports. The markets have made some adjustments, notably in the Flyers game, with their odds inching up from -162 to -172. The Stars also see a slight decrease from -195 to -185 with goaltender Scott Wedgewood expected to start. This lull in sharp activity could mean a wait-and-see approach is best for bettors looking for an edge in tonight's games.

NBA: Sharps Making Their Moves

Over in the NBA, the sharps have zeroed in on five games, with the Celtics' line movement from -6 to -8 catching the eye. This shift, despite the GTD status of Porzingis, suggests confidence in the Celtics' play, especially with no word on load management for a Minnesota team that played last night.

In Miami, the Thunder's line has swelled from -2.5 to -4.5, supported by a mere 32% of the handle, yet the sharp report backs this move with sharp money on the Thunder. Despite the GTD statuses of Lowry and Martin, the line's shift indicates a strong sentiment towards Oklahoma City.

NBA Trends vs. Linemakers: The Utah Dilemma

The Jazz game is a prime example of recent trends clashing with the linemakers' decisions. Denver's line has stretched from -5.5 to -7, disregarding Utah’s formidable home record and the Nuggets’ own challenges in Utah. It seems the linemakers are placing weight on factors beyond recent performances.

College Basketball: Where the Public and Sharps Divide

In college basketball, IUPUI emerges as a public favorite, while Green Bay stands out as a liability play for the books. The line has naturally drifted towards Green Bay, from -6.5 to -8, with an overwhelming 90% of the handle in their favor.

St. John's has been pegged as another public favorite, with a notable line shift from -6 to -7.5. This could signal the books' adjustment to balance the action they're receiving.

Sam Houston State has garnered the attention of three sharps, with a modest line shift from -1 to -2. However, the total has seen a significant jump from 151 to 157 at Betonline sportsbook, indicating a consensus among sharps on a high-scoring affair.

Game of the day

Today's sports betting spotlight falls on a game that's caught the eye of the Whale, a bettor who's placed a substantial $35,000 on the under 140. Despite the confidence this big player has in a low-scoring affair, there are compelling reasons to approach this game from a different angle.

The Tale of the Total

The total for this matchup has seen its fair share of movement, opening at 138, cresting to 140.5, and then receding back to 138.5. Such volatility in the lines is a common theme in sports betting, often reflecting conflicting perspectives among bettors. The Whale's position on the under might seem persuasive given the substantial bet, but let's delve into why there's room for a different viewpoint.

A Painful Memory: The Under in Tennessee

A previous wager on the under in a Tennessee game serves as a cautionary tale for me. That experience left a sour taste, reminding us that betting is not just about trends and stats but also about the ebb and flow of each game. With that said, it's worth considering the current dynamics at play before retracing steps down a potentially regrettable path.

Defense Meets Offense: The SEC Showdown

This game is a showcase of defensive prowess, featuring two of the top three defenses in the SEC. Such a statistic might typically lend credence to an under bet. However, it's impossible to overlook Tennessee's recent offensive surge. Averaging 82.5 points over their last eight games and scoring at least 79 points on seven occasions speaks volumes of their scoring capabilities.

Tennessee's Tempo and Offensive Ranking

Tennessee's ascent to 103rd in KenPom’s tempo ranking is noteworthy, as it indicates a quicker pace of play, which often correlates with higher scoring. Combine this with their 23rd ranked offense, and you have a recipe for points on the board.

Bulldogs' Scoring Potential

On the other side, the Bulldogs might have had a rough offensive outing recently, but their overall track record shows they can rack up points. With scores hitting at least 85 in half of their last six games and breaching 70 in five, their ability to contribute to a higher total can't be dismissed.

Historical Over Trends

History also hints at a potentially higher-scoring game, with the over hitting in the last three matchups between these teams. This trend suggests that when these two squads meet, the scoreboard gets a workout.

Conclusion

In the complex ballet of betting, today's game presents a dance between the Whale's under bet and the tangible offensive momentum of Tennessee. The fluctuating total reflects a market unsure of where to settle, but the recent performances and historical trends indicate that this SEC clash might just light up the scoreboard more than the Whale anticipates. While the Whale's wager is a significant marker, it's just one piece in a larger puzzle that seems to be aligning for an over outcome.

RECAP: TENNESSEE UNDER 139

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