Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 9 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

I hope you guys had a great weekend. My focus during the NHL break was to update my NHL team rankings and get ready for the trade deadline. The Panthers are at the top of my rankings while Montreal is all the way at the bottom. NHL is back tomorrow. Till then our focus will be on the NBA and CBB

Sorry for skipping yesterday, life got in the way and had to deal with you! As per the sharp report, the sharps did well in the NBA and CBB. Not so good in the NHL. Teh NHL is back in full swing and we now have 2 slates under the belt coming back from the all-star break. It was a great spot for the Habs to win yesterday, especially since they are getting healthier and their roster is starting to make more sense..... but NOOOOOOO .... lost 7-1. So freaking embarrassing. The Canes didn't look any better in Ottawa. The Caps couldn't keep with the Blue Jackets, the Jets dominated puck control, The Oilers couldn't score a goal and daily fantasy players were happy with the Cancucks production.

DETROIT REDWINGS

No one likes to bet on the Flyers. Can you blame them? Not many like to bet on the wings on the road, at 6-12-3 for the season it's always a risky bet however the sharps found value behind the Wings yesterday morning. The Flyers are 2-7-1 in their last 10 however just won 2 straight at home versus the Jets and Kings and they can thank their goaltender for those wins since the Flyers allowed way too many shots on goal. Detroit has been playing some .500 hockey in the last 10 games and I'm sure they are not looking forward in playing in Philly since they are 1-16 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia. This is a different Flyers team and sharps hit the +114 and +110 on the Wings finding value all the way to +102. The game is basically a pickem at the moment. Max bet limits are halfway open and I'd put my money on Hart instead of Nedeljkovic. My NHL model has the Flyers at -120 and we find ~ 4.15% EV on them. Do you really want to bet on a Detroit team that is 16-65 in their last 81 road games? I don't agree with the sharp interest.

ISLANDERS / CANUCKS UNDER

The Canunks will be on a b2b facing the Islanders after cruising through the Coyotes last night. The Canucks are 2-3-0-1 on no rest and have lost 2 of 3 after winning the first leg of a b2b. The total is 3-3 on game 2 and this is where the sharps have set their focus. I totally agree with the sharp interest in the under 5.5 since my model has this game projected to score 4.27 with Sorokin and Halak between the pipes. The total opened at 5.5u -118 yesterday and hit a breaking point this morning when it reached -138. That forced the market maker to drop the total to 5o -122. The Islanders have the 3rd worst GF/G at 2.36 and the Canucks are not too far behind with the 5th worst at 2.49. Both teams are in the top 5 in GA/G therefore the books should have opened this total at 5 and not 5.5. Everything points to an under and I would recommend a play at 5.5 if you can still find it.

BULLS / HORNETS OVER

This total opened overnight at some US-based books at 228.5 and we didn't see much movement. Betonline opened Its total early this morning at 230.5 and within the first 2 hours, it made a jump to 233. That's what sharp money does at a sharp book. We have one sharp that bet the under at 231 however the sharp money coming in on the over overruled the under. My NBA model has this total at 228 therefore the current number is a little inflated. These are 2 top 10 offenses facing tonight however one of them has regressed to a point that they haven't met their mean is scoring in over 5 games.... Yes Hornets, I am talking about you. Their FG shooting % dropped 4-7% from their mean and they were terrible especially vs the Raports, Heats, Cavs and Clippers. Maybe they need to face the Bulls to get back on track, the total has gone over in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago. Recent play from the Bulls points to an easy over, as for the Hornets it points to an easy under. Will you tail the sharps on this one?

Good luck today

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