Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 3 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

There's a reason the Blackhawks are one of the worst puck possession teams in the league. They didn't stand a chance versus the Wild last night. The sharps were wrong there. They were right about the Oilers and I agreed with them. It was a bonus when Ove was announced out with C19. The Oilers game the sharps a scare blowing a 3-1 lead however they ended up winning the game 5-3. The last game was the under in 76ers land. My analysis was that the Wizards wouldn't hit 100 pts and my model also really liked the under. Well. the game did go under as planned however the Wizards won straight up in Philly....I know I know... I don't get it either!

No NHL until February 7th so it will all be about Basketball.

MINNESOTA / DETROIT OVER

The over is expected between these 2 fast-paced teams. Minnesota is 4th in adjusted pace and 5th in possessions per game. Detroit is in the middle of the pack in both categories. Over is 5-0 in Timberwolves last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 8-1 in their 9 when favourite. The Pistons are 4-1 on the over following a straight-up loss. The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota. The Twolves have been averaging 125 pts in their last 3 games. Market maker opened this total at 225.5 overnight and sharps jumped on the over 225.5 and 227 on low max limits. The total settled at 228.5. The handle and tickets are on the over at ~ 72%. My model has this total at 222. If Detroit can keep up with Minnesota's high pace I can see this total go over however it should be a tight one.

ATLANTA HAWKS

Two very hot teams will face in Atlanta. The hawks got an 8 game winning steak snapped vs Toronto on Jan 31st. Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix and they are getting points at home tonight. Defense has been an issue for the Hawks this year and they rank 21 at home. They will face the 5th best offense on the road. The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10. In the last 10 games, the Suns are 10-0 and 7-3 ATS, scoring on average 118 pts on allowed 106.4 however hold an ATS margin of just 4 pts. The last interesting trend is that ATL is 0-6 when a dog of between 3 to 4.5 pts. Market makers opened the Suns a 5.5 favourite overnight and the line moved up to -6 early this morning. That's when sharps jumped on ATL at +6 and +4.5. The line settled at +4. Young is questionable however we can assume that with the line movement he might be playing. My NBA model has the Suns as an -3.5 favourite with young in the lineup for the Hawks.

DREXEL / DELAWARE UNDER

You would think that everyone would be on over this game, especially the sharps right? In the last 2 games, they played they scored over 150 pts in each game. Drexel can put up a shitload and Delaware is a top in 3's in the CAA which is a weakness for Drexel's defense. In the last 4 road games for Drexel, the total went under 3 out of 4 by almost 10 pts from the closing number. Market makers opened this total at 146 yesterday afternoon and sharps have been hitting the under from 145.5 to 141.5. In terms of handle, 54% of the total money is on the over, therefore there is big money on the under. My CBB model has this total set at 142 therefore I support the sharp interest.

Good luck today

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