Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 2 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

TOLD YOU I DIDN'T AGREE WITH THE PENS! Sharps were wrong there. My model screamed value on the Caps and with a little handicapping the value was confirmed! It looked like the sharps were going to be wrong on the Flames also but they pulled a rabbit out of their ass and scored 3 in the last 5 min to win the game 4-3 and crushed so many Paypaid Parlays that we had going!!

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS

UPSET ALERT?? The smoking hot Wild are in Chicago to battle the Blackhawks that are at the bottom of the league in offense and defense metrics. The Wild owns the 3rd best offense scoring on average 3.8 goals per game. Winners of 8 of their last 10, the Wild have been dominating the Central going 9-1-2 in their last 12. The Hawks have also been good vs the Central going 6-1-1 in their last 8 however they have lost 4 straight at home when being an underdog. Four of their last 10 games H2H have ended in overtime and 5 of 10 was one win a margin of 1 game. The Wild will be without Dumba and Foligno and Talbot will be between the pipes. My NHL model has Minnesota set has a -179 favourite and 5Dimes opened the at- 170. Sharps have slammed the Blackhawks at +152 and +134. There was some buyback on the Wild to push the line back to +153 however sharps came right back at slammed Chicago again. The line has now been stable since this afternoon. Max bet limits are still low and based on the trend this line can keep on dropping.

EDMONTON OILERS

"Hey Anthony, how efficient is NHL model" is a question that I get asked many times. The answer is simple... look for yourself. It's out most of the time the night before between 8-9 pm and if members don't have access to it via their phones or computer just ask for it... that's what we do here!! This line wasn't available last night when I ran my model for the first time and when I saw I was projecting EDM at -112 I said to myself WTF. Washington is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Edmonton however Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home meaning they have not been dominant at home lately. Fatigue is a factor the sharps like to target. This will be the first b2b game for the Caps since Jan 15-16. They beat the Islanders on the road and lost to the Canucks the following night. The Caps won a huge game in overtime last night in Pittsburgh and travelled back home late in the night. Can this be a letdown spot for them combined with fatigue? Market makers opened the Caps a -128, way off from my projection however sharps hit the Oilers at +115 and +109 pushing the line to basically a pickem. The Oilers currently own 75% of the handle and 60% of the tickets. Max bet limits are open halfway through and we can expect move movement during the day.

WASHINGTON / PHILADELPHIA UNDER

The Wizards have lost 6 straight and failed to score over 100 pts in 3 of their last 4. In their last 5 games, the over-under margin went under by approximately 14 points per game. Beal is out with a wrist injury while Embiid looks fully healthy. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games and Philadelphia total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 15 games at home. when they played the Celtics which own the 4th best defensive rating the Wizard shot for 36% from the field. The 76ers own the 10th best defensive rating. The odds from the Wizards to reach 100 pts tonight are slim. My NBA model has this total set at 211. Market makers opened the total at 216.5 about 2 hours ago and on low max risk limits sharps slammed the under 216.5 forcing books to adjust the total at 213.5. My model supports the sharp interest in this game and I like it also.

Good luck today

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