Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 11 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Sharps were dead on the under in Ottawa. I liked it also after handicapping the game. The game finished 2-0 and the goalies showed up in this one as expected. The Flames were for from the superior team last night. I understand the spot was solid to bet the Leafs however the sharps were wrong on this one. The last game was Memphis and they didn't even need to sweat this one out.

There was not much movement in the NHL overnight except for the total in EDM. The total opened at 6 and was steamed down to 5.5 by sharps. I have no interest in this game. The Islanders put up 6 goals last game in Vancouver and you have a better chance to get hit by lightning than seeing the NYI score 6 while the Oilers are due to blow up especially now that they got their coach fired.

In the NBA the favourites are being targeted by the sharps, let's take a look at a couple of games:

CHICAGO BULLS

Minnesota saw their 5 game winning streak end in Sacramento 2 days ago. Chicago has seemed to get their shit together when playing vs .500 teams by winning and covering vs POR, ORL, IND and CHA. This is game 1 of a 6 game homestand for the Bulls and Chicago is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Minnesota and The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games at home. Both teams are close in Adj. net rating and it made sense for market markets to open this game favouring the home team by -1.5. Sharps hit the Bulls at -1.5 all the way up to -4. We saw a little buyback on Minnesota at +4 however it's been all Chicago money. My model has them at -3 and this should be a good game to watch.


BOSTON CELTICS

After losing 3 straight the Nuggets took care of the Knicks and Nets at home. They hit the road and will play the Celtics tonight. the Celtics are top 3 in points allowed per 100 possessions while Denver sports the 6th best adjusted offensive rating. Boston is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against Denver, won 6 straight and has completely destroyed the Nets and Magic by ATS margins of 24+ points. Market makers opened the Celtics at -3.5 yesterday however sharps hit the line when max bet limits were halfway opened and pushed the line to -5.5. Boston is currently holding 80% of the handle and tickets. My NBA model has the Celtics a 4 pt favourite and if this line keeps moving up we will have some great value on the Nuggets that haven't been active on the market while the Celtics had to offload 6-7 players to not get hit with the luxury tax.

There hasn't been more interest from the sharps. The Sharp report reported that these games have seen sharp interest however except Cleveland the others haven't moved much:

CHARLOTTE OVER 225
SAN ANTONIO OVER 232.5
CLEVELAND -5.5

Good luck today

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