Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 10 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Yesterday was a little crazy since I was sweating about 25 plays from 7 pm to almost 2 am. Some weird stuff in the NHL and the NBA. The Warriors got dismantled after a solid start to the game. The Lakers, well, they are bad! Edmonton loses again, Vegas doesn't even score, Arizona wins on the road and the most anticipated under of the year finished with 9 goals.

Sharps were right on the Redwings, the Flyers suck. They were wrong on the Canucks total going under however I supported that play also. We can say the sharps were also wrong about the Bulls going over. If you read my piece you would have understood the concerns around the Hornets offense lately. The total opened at 228.5 at some US-based books however opened at 230.5 at the market makers, the game finished at 230 pts and the total closed at 237.

PITTSBURGH / OTTAWA UNDER

There is a reason the Pens are having such a good season nonetheless all the injuries. They are top 10 in scoring and top 3 in goals against. They face a feisty Sens team that has won 3 of their last 4. Ottawa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh and the total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh. The Pens have just been great on the road and sport one of the best records in the league with a 15-5-3 record for the season. In their last 12 games has a road favourite they are 10-2. It's strange to see the sharps on the under in this game. In their last 5 games h2h they've combined an average score of 8.8 goals per game however digging into my model projection I would have smashed the under 6.5 as well when it was available. Don't get me wrong this game can easily go over the total however it boils down to the goalies. Murray really stepped it up last 10 games and Jarry is maintaining a solid 2.21 GAA and an SV% over .920.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

How can the sharps be on the Leafs after that masterful performance from the Flames last night??? Well Vladar is projected, even though he hasn't been bad this year he is not Markstrom and they are playing on a b2b with potentially a little letdown after that big win yesterday. The Leafs opened a -120 overnight and sharp interest was instant and pushed them to -135. The total is set at 6 and this game will feature 2 top 5 GA/G teams. The Leafs have won 6 straight and have been scoring an average of 5 GF/G while the Flames are on a 4 game winning streak where they have 2 SO (VGK & VAN) and are barely giving away any high danger scoring chances. The Flames are 4-2-1 on no rest and all 4 victories came after a win in the first leg of the back to back. Calgary is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto. My Model has the Leafs a -119 favourite. I agree on the opening number but now the line is a little inflated.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

The Grizzlies can be one of the most dominant forces in the NBA day in day out. Currently, on a 3 game winning streak, they've put up on average 130 pts per game and this is ~ 17 pts above their scoring mean. In the last 3 games, they've been winning games by an ATS margin of 13 pts. The Pistons are going the opposite direction, losers of 9 of last 10 however with a respectable 5-5 ATS. They just got destroyed in Dallas losing by 30 pts. Detroit is 14-12 ATS at home while Memphis is 19-8 ATS and continues to be a force on offense and on the boards. Memphis loves to play in Detroit, Memphis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Detroit. The Grizzlies shot for over 50% (FG%) in their last 2 games and I don't see them slowing down versus the 25th ranked defense in the league. BetMgM opened Memphis a 9.5 fav yesterday and adjusted their line to -10 when market makers opened overnight. This morning a set of sharps hit the -10 and pushed the line to -12. My model has the line at -9 making the -12 a little inflated. If you like Memphis you will have to pay a little premium on the line. Detroit is flat-out bad and with the trade deadline around the corner, you can see that they have completely lost focus in their last 5 games. This is a spot that worries me for Memphis since we would be buying them high but I don't see how Detroit can keep up with them tonight. Memphis is 22-12 on one day rest and 20-14 ATS, 3-0 on spreads between 10 and -12.5 pts.

Good luck today

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