Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 1 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Edmonton was very disappointing last night losing in Ottawa. I did call value on the Sens and Murray in GPPs in DFS. Sharps were wrong about the Oilers and my model supported the Sens. The sharps were also wrong on the over on DET and Houston kept it close until GS just pulled away with the cover and gave the sharps their only win based on the Overnight Grind

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

A much-anticipated game between these two. The Pens are 5-2 in their last 7 games at home vs the Caps. Sidney and the gang are regressing a little after a hot streak while the Caps are over 2 embarrassing losses vs SJ and VGK by totally dominating the Stars. Washington has done very well on the road this year going 12-5-4 however recently cant put up 2 straight wins going 0-4 in their last 4 following win. Expecting a low-scoring game, this opens value for the Caps. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 road games. Pens just lost their 3 to LA, DET and SEA however they went through a stretch of 7 games in 10 days including 2 sets of back-to-back. Caps are way more rested having played with 1 day rest almost every game and their last back-to-back game was 2 weeks ago. What do the sharps think about this? They don't give a shit! The Pens opened at -138 this morning and by 1pm they smashed the Pens at -138 and -145 pushing the line to -155. My model still needs an update in the morning however the Pens will not be higher than -125. We have value in Washington and I don't agree with the sharp interest in Pittsburgh.

CALGARY FLAMES

The #1 scoring team on the road was made a favourite by the sharps this afternoon. They are playing the Dallas who are 15-5 at home and winner of 4 of their last 5. They were embarrassed by the Caps and they answered with a 6-1 win vs the Bruins. Overall the Flames are better at offense, defense, the PK and most important, they are elite between the pipes. The Flames will try and break a 4 game losing streak to the Stars while the Stars look to extend their winning streak to 5 when they are underdogs at home. My NHL model has this game at a pickem. Market makers opened the Flames at +103 and sharps slammed that number, and the -111. The handle is at 50/50 right now and max bet limits are still low. It will be interesting to see where this game closes.

Good luck today

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