Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 9, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The format of this article will be changed once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: It was no bueno yesterday for the smart money. Only the Leafs under 6 cashed. Houston, Portland, and Iowa State all failed to cover.

There is a lot of movement in the NBA. The Kings and Cavs opened at 226 late last night and with the news of Love being out the smart money dropped the hammer on the under this morning and is currently at 222. 70% of the handle is on the over therefore the smart money was heavy on the under.

Davis, James, and Beverley are all probable for tonight's game in Philadelphia. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS last 4 games in Philly. LA owns 75% of the handle and the line moved the other way. The 76ers opened at -3.5 and the line moved to -5 this morning.

Indiana is finally back home after a 7 game road trip in which they only won and covered 2 games. Not crazy about betting on a team that just got back from a long road trip. Also, the Pacers are 0-5 ATS last 5 games when playing on a 1 day's rest. But this is the Wizards, right? Should be easy right? If Barton and Porzingis are out I would agree with this move. The Pacers opened at -3.5 yesterday afternoon and quickly moved up to -5 with only 49% of the handle.

In the NHL, we have the Jets playing on a b2b and the line did move in favor of Chicago however there is no sharp indication at the book.

The 2 most interesting spots in the NHL are on the Sharks and Rangers. We know that Colorado is crippled with injuries but the books seem that have undervalued the Rangers and opened them as a -124 favorite. The line moved up to -151 quickly and sharps did hit the -124 and -135.

The Sharks home and away splits are funny. 6-8 on the road and 2-8-2-3 at home. Both teams have only won 2 games in their last 10. The Ducks have been allowing on average 40 SOG per game in their last 5 games and you just can't win games by allowing that amount of SOGs every night. The Sharks are 6th in goals for this season and have a respectable powerplay. The Ducks rank at the bottom of the league in GF, GA, PP, and PK. The line basically opened at a pickem (-105) however with only 25% of tickets and 72% of the handle, the sharp money moved the line to -120.

To recap: Cavs under 222, 76ers -5, Pacers -5, Rangers -149, Sharks -120

Good luck today

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