Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 4 CFB Edition

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Let's take a look at some games that sharps took interest in on Saturday. There is a handful of them so let's dig in.

Baylor / Oklahoma under

This total dropped a FG from when it opened. Market makers opened the total at 49 and it dropped at 46.5 on the same day and finally settled at 46 this evening.

NY Rangers

It's very common to see big favourites in the NHL get steamed. The Rangers are one tonight. The Sharks are coming in MSG winning 3 straight while the Rangers have won their last 4. Both teams have been playing great defense in their last 3 allowing close to 1 goal per game. Market makers opened the Rangers at -170 and the line was hit early, same with the -175 and -185. The moneyline now sits at -200 for the Rangers and it seems a little high based on the Sharks recent play. The Sharks are on a road b2b and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the sharp interest is banging on the Sharks potential fatigue factor. My NHL betting model has the Rangers a -234 favourite therefore we are aligned with the sharps here. The max bet limit is set at 12k therefore this line is properly adjusted and the books are ready for business.

Other noticeable sharp moves in the NHL: VGK from -190 to -219 and WPG -165 to -190Lost Angeles Lakers

LA Lakers

These games are always fun. Everyone is talking about James decline and it's downhill from here. He kinda rises on these occasions. As always we will have to keep an eye on the injury report. George is out, James is probable and Davis is questionable. My NBA model priced the Clippers a -2.5 favourite and the market makers agree. The line was stable until early this morning when sharps started slamming the low max limits and pushed the line 3 points towards the Lakers to -1. Do they know something we don't? The max bet limits are still under 2k. Clippers are 3-7 in their L110 and 2-8 ATS. Lakers are 3-2 L5 and 2-3 ATS. The Lakers seem to have more momentum in the last 4 games and have been playing better.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights 

I don't know what to make from the Scarlet Knights but it's fun to follow the line movement in their games. They are 1-6 ATS this season and I know many got burnt from them more than once this season. Curbelo should be out again tonight and Rutgers can definitely take advantage of that. At a first glance, the opening line at 5dimes was very high at -10.5 and sharps steamed this line all the way down to -7.5 hence heavy initial interest in Rutgers. This line hasn't stopped moving and we potentially have another set of sharps slamming the -7.5 and -8 pushing this line back up to -8.5 for Illinois. The handle on this game is similar to the Iowa / Purdue game which is surprising. 55% of the money is on Rutgers however it keeps on dropping since money is now coming in on Illinois. My model has Illinois at -7.

There will be no recap on Saturdays and Sundays so see you guys back on money. In the meantime, I will get an article out for CFB and NFL's biggest movers for this weekend.

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