Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 29, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: No game to review.

In the bustling sports world today, several notable line movements are capturing the attention of bettors and analysts alike. Starting with the NHL, the clash between the Capitals and Islanders has seen significant adjustments. The total has been aggressively adjusted down from 6 to 5.5, indicating strong positions likely taken by influential market participants. Additionally, there's been a shift in the Capitals' odds, improving from +146 to +131, hinting at sharp action backing the underdog.

The NHL action doesn't stop there. In Florida, the sharp bettors appear to favor the visiting Rangers, who have seen their odds flip from underdog status at +105 to slight favorites at -105, despite minimal support, with only 14% of the handle.

The Anaheim Ducks are yet another underdog catching the eye of savvy bettors. They've tightened from +121 to +110 on the moneyline, an intriguing move considering a mere 1% of the handle is behind them.

Shifting to the NBA, total points are the main feature in today's betting narratives. The Washington game's over is being labeled a 'mega sharp play,' with the total soaring to 243 at select books after opening at 239. The consensus suggests an offensive display is anticipated.

In Houston, with the Suns clashing with a 76ers squad missing key players like Embiid and Tatum, the total has been pushed up from 218 to 223, supported by a significant 75% of the over handle, signaling expectations of a lighter defensive effort.

Portland's matchup sees our most dramatic total decrease, falling from 234 to 229 amid expectations of several starters missing due to injuries. Interestingly, 60% of bets are still favoring the over, although the handle remains evenly split.

College basketball is buzzing with activity, but the betting front has been relatively subdued. Nevertheless, slight sharp interests have prompted market adjustments, with Wright State, California, Utah, and East Carolina experiencing the most significant moves. Wright State's line leaped from -6.5 to -8 amidst heavy backing. Arizona's overwhelming initial support at -16 has been calmed, with the line settling at -13.5 after a series of drops.

East Carolina has seen a steady climb from -5.5 to a potentially higher -8.5 or -9 by later today, indicating a perceived soft opening by the bookmakers.

The bowl games will receive their due analysis in the Bottom Line article, but the spotlight today is on the NBA total in Washington. Four sharps have pounced on the total overnight and into the morning. Despite a history of unders in recent matchups and Washington's struggling offense, the Wizards' recent scoring spree, including against robust defenses, challenges the initial lean towards the under. Conversely, the Nets' recent concessions to a lower-tier Pistons offense have cast doubts on their defensive solidity. This leaves the over in a tantalizingly precarious position, not as clear-cut as it may seem at first glance.

RECAP: Nets over 242.5

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