Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 28, 2023

5 months ago

Anthony P

While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.

RECAP of yesterday's games: No game to review.

In the dynamic world of sports betting, understanding line movement is crucial for bettors seeking to make informed decisions. Recent trends in NHL, NBA, and college basketball (CBB) games offer valuable insights into how odds can shift and what these movements signify.

NHL Insights: Oilers Attracting Attention

In the NHL, the Edmonton Oilers have seen significant line movement. Originally opening at -325, the odds have shifted to -355 against the San Jose Sharks. This shift, influenced by the Sharks playing back-to-back road games, indicates a challenging scenario for them. It's noteworthy that the Sharks are preferred by sharps, yet the odds favor the Oilers more as the game approaches.

NBA Trends: Totals on the Move

The NBA slate presents various movements, particularly in game totals. Notable changes include:

Boston's Shifting Total: With Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum's playing status uncertain, the total for their game dropped from 234 to 231. This movement highlights the impact star players have on betting lines.
New Orleans' Total Spike: A remarkable jump in the total from 235.5 to 240, despite no sharp money or significant early wagering, suggests that sharps in other markets are favoring the over.
Denver's Under Bet: Sharp bettors at the book are leaning towards the under in Denver, with the total dropping to 224.5. This contrasts with some markets opening at 228.5, indicating a divergence in betting perspectives.

CBB: Spotting Smart Money

In college basketball, line movements can often reveal where the smart money lies. A significant shift in Idaho, with the line moving from -1 on the visiting team to -3 on Idaho, despite only 54% of the handle on Idaho, implies heavy, respected betting on the home team elsewhere. Additionally, UC Riverside, opening as a 14-point underdog, has seen the line drop to +11, indicating smart money’s influence.

Concluding Remarks

This analysis provides a snapshot of line movements in various sports, offering bettors insights into how odds can fluctuate based on player availability, betting patterns, and sharp bettors' preferences. For more detailed breakdowns of NFL and college football (CFB) games, stay tuned for the upcoming Bottom Line article, where we delve deeper into these sports.

RECAP: no games

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