Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 22, 2023
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.
The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.
To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.
Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.RECAP of yesterday's games: No games to recap
Today's sports betting landscape presents a diverse slate, encompassing the NHL, NBA, College Basketball (CBB), and College Football (CFB). While the NHL sees minimal movement, the NBA, CBB, and CFB are bustling with significant line changes. These movements offer keen insights into public sentiment and potential betting strategies.
NHL Movement: A Steady Scene
In the NHL, the New York Rangers have seen a modest shift from -138 to -154 against the Edmonton Oilers, who played last night. Such movements are typical in back-to-back game scenarios, indicating a standard market adjustment rather than a dramatic shift in public opinion.
NBA Action: Significant Shifts
The NBA betting lines are more volatile today. The Philadelphia 76ers have seen their line move from -7 to -8.5, with an 85% handle indicating further movement, possibly reaching -9. Such a shift reflects strong public confidence in the 76ers.
Houston's line, initially at -2.5, jumped significantly to -9 with the news of Luka Dončić's absence (and potentially Kyrie Irving's). This adjustment aligns with my NBA model's predictions, suggesting the line could stretch even to -10.
The Sacramento Kings, recovering from a recent bad loss, have moved from -2.5 to -3.5 against the underperforming Phoenix Suns that can't score anymore. With 64% of the handle backing the Kings, this movement reflects public trust in their ability to capitalize on the Suns' scoring slump.
CBB: A Focus on Popular Picks
In college basketball, Drexel's fluctuating line against Bryant, moving between -3 and -3.5, highlights its popularity among bettors. Conversely, James Madison University's jump from -19 to -21, backed by 90% of the handle, showcases strong public backing despite a quiet overall day in CBB.
CFB: Total Points Talk
In college football, the total points line for the UCF vs. Georgia Tech game has been a major topic. Opening at 61 and climbing to 68 before settling at 67, this movement reflects heavy betting on the over. However, despite this trend, it's unlikely to climb higher, indicating a plateau in public expectation.
Conclusion
Today's line movements across various sports reveal much about public betting patterns and market reactions. From the steady NHL to the more volatile NBA and the dynamic shifts in CBB and CFB, these changes offer valuable insights for bettors. Understanding these trends can be key to making informed betting decisions in a landscape where timing and perception are everything.
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