Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 21, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: Since we are giving access to all the picks and tools for free this week, I am skipping the game of the day preview. We will be back at it next week.

Today, I'm taking a different approach with this article and I'm eager to hear your thoughts on it. My focus will be on analyzing the shifts in odds and handles, offering insights that could aid your betting strategies. While I'm concentrating solely on the NHL in this piece, the same principles can be applied to other sports. If you have any questions or need further clarification, feel free to reach out to me on Discord. Your feedback is always valued.

As sports betting continues to grow, savvy bettors pay close attention to the movement of betting lines and percentages to make informed decisions. In this analysis, we will examine the notable shifts in NHL game odds from the opening lines to current odds and correlate these movements with bet and money percentages.

Carolina vs. Pittsburgh

• Opening Odds: Carolina (-111)

• Current Odds: Carolina (-126)

• Bet Percentage: 90%

• Money Percentage: 99%

The line movement here indicates increased confidence in Carolina, likely due to a combination of factors such as recent performance, player injuries, or public betting behavior. The heavy backing in both bet and money percentages suggests a consensus among the betting public and those placing larger wagers.

Washington vs. Columbus

• Opening Odds: Washington (-120)

• Current Odds: Washington (-107)

• Bet Percentage: 60%

• Money Percentage: 58%

In contrast, the line for Washington has moved in the opposite direction, indicating less confidence in their win. However, the bet and money percentages are relatively balanced, suggesting a more evenly matched contest as perceived by bettors. The Caps played last night and don't forget, the opposite team always gets additional interest in these type of spots.

Toronto vs. Buffalo

• Opening Odds: Toronto (-157)

• Current Odds: Toronto (-138)

• Bet Percentage: 89%

• Money Percentage: 83%

Despite the line moving against Toronto, the high bet and money percentages show that bettors still favor them heavily. This could reflect Toronto's status as a favorite despite potential risks identified by sharps or bookmakers.

Implications for Bettors

Line movements can result from a variety of factors, including changes in public betting patterns, sharp action, and new information about teams such as injuries or strategic changes. Bettors should consider both the direction of the line movement and the percentages of bets and money:

• Agreement Between Line Movement and Percentages: When the line movement agrees with high bet and money percentages (as seen with Carolina), it often reflects a strong market consensus.

• Discrepancies Between Line Movement and Percentages: When there's a discrepancy, such as with Toronto, bettors should investigate further. It could indicate sharp money coming in on the underdog or other factors at play.

RECAP: No game

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