Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 20, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: We had no featured game yesterday to go recap.

Line movements offer a unique insight into market trends, bettor behavior, and game expectations. Today’s sports landscape, spanning the NHL, NBA, and college basketball, presents a series of interesting shifts and patterns worth exploring.

NHL: Detroit Red Wings Gaining Traction: In the NHL, with just three games on the schedule, the Detroit Red Wings' visit to Winnipeg stands out. Despite not featuring prominently in sharp reports, the return of Larkin to Detroit's lineup has stirred interest in other markets. Originally opening at +147, the Red Wings saw their line drop to +132, an intriguing move given that only 19% of the handle is backing them. This shift suggests a growing confidence in Detroit’s potential, defying the modest handle support. Additionally, the game’s total has attracted sharp attention, moving from 6 to 6.5, indicating expectations for a higher-scoring affair.

NBA: Adjustments and Injuries Shaping the Lines: The NBA scene has been relatively quiet, but a few key games are drawing attention. The Cavaliers, grappling with injuries, opened as -8.5 favorites against the Utah Jazz. However, the Jazz's recent form – winning and covering three of their last four – has led to a line adjustment down to -6.5, despite only 14% of the handle favoring the Cavs. This move reflects bettor caution against a Jazz team that’s finding its rhythm.

In another notable shift, the Kings, hosting the Celtics, have seen their underdog status change from +2.5 to -3. This significant line movement is largely attributed to the Celtics playing a tough game against Golden State last night, coupled with Porzingis’s absence and potential rests for other key players. The market clearly anticipates the Celtics' diminished strength in this back-to-back scenario.

College Basketball: Major Swings and Square Picks: The college basketball slate is bustling with activity. The North Carolina vs. Oklahoma game has become a popular choice among square bettors, holding 90% of the tickets on 2000 wagers. This heavy leaning has pushed the line from -1 to -3 in North Carolina's favor, a clear testament to public sentiment.

Duke's matchup also witnessed a remarkable swing. In an effort to balance the action, the line moved significantly from a pick’em to Duke -3, a move aimed to attract bets on Baylor.

Seton Hall, starting as a +11 underdog, has seen a shift to +8 against UCONN, despite only holding 35% of the money. This move could be a reaction to early sharp action. Now, with some buyback occurring at -8, a few books are adjusting to -8.5, signaling a market correction.

Conclusion and Insights: Today’s line movements across different sports highlight the intricate interplay of player availability, team form, and public perception in betting markets. In the NHL, the Red Wings' line movement against the Jets is particularly noteworthy for its divergence from public betting trends. In the NBA, the Cavaliers' diminished odds against the Jazz and the Kings' shift to favorites against a potentially weakened Celtics squad are key points of interest. In college basketball, the public's heavy favoring of North Carolina and the reactive line movements in the Duke and Seton Hall games underscore the market's sensitivity to betting patterns and sharp action.

For bettors, these shifts offer valuable insights. In the NHL, the Red Wings might present an undervalued opportunity. In the NBA, the Jazz’s odds against an injury-riddled Cavaliers team and the Kings' new favorite status against the Celtics provide intriguing considerations. In college basketball, the heavy action on North Carolina and the adjustments in the Duke and Seton Hall games highlight areas where the market is particularly reactive, offering potential value spots. As always, bettors should consider these dynamics carefully, balancing the statistical data, team news, and market trends to make informed betting decisions.

RECAP: No game

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