Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 2, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The format of this article will be changed once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: The smart money went 1-2 yesterday with only the Wild winning. The Canucks continue to have issues in nets and Valpo failed to cover.

We have a 3 game slate in the NHL and no sharp money to report. Nashville played a big game yesterday in New Jersey but the line hasn't moved much in favor of the Islanders.

In the NBA we welcome an 11-game slate. The sharp report shows that the sharps hit 2 sides and 2 totals overnight. One of those games is the Bucks at home. Market makers opened the Bucks at -6.5 and with 80% of the early handle on them they moved the line to -8.5. This line can easily move to -9 and -9.5 if money doesn't start coming in on the Lakers.

I just covered this game in the NBA model article however we will talk about it more here. Some US retail books got excited and opened the Hawks at -1.5 yesterday afternoon while the market makers opened their lines late last night and set the Nuggets a -1.5 favorite. Therefore some US books might have seen incremental Nuggets money come their way due to the softer line.

Running the numbers in CBB last night (even though I now hate CBB) I noticed that Towson at -17.5 might have been too high. My model has them at -15, and Kenpom at -13. LIU has been terrible and hit with some injuries. Wood, Fall, Crawford, and Cook are all questionable for tonight and the numbers start making sense. Towson opened at -17.5 yesterday night, moved the -19 overnight, and pushed to -20 early this morning. The max bet limit on this game is $525.

I've been following this total move-up all week and was wondering when it will be the time to hit the under. North Texas and UTSA opened at 65.5 5 days ago. Moved to 67.5 on the 28th of November. The sharps at my book jumped on it at 68 and it's now at 70. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Texas SA and the under is 7-1 in their last 8 meetings. Looking at their numbers it will be hard to support the defenses in this game.

To recap Bucks -8.5, Towson -20, North Texas over 70

Good luck today

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