Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 16, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The format of this article will be changed once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: We tool the lose on Miami under 218.5. That total was wagered down from 224 to 216.5.

We are expecting a lot of snow in Montreal tomorrow and I have a good feeling ill be shoveling most of the day. Then when the kids come back from school they will want to play outside and that's what my day will be like tomorrow.

Big NBA slate tomorrow and Fridays tend to get weird. We already have some early movers.

The Pistons total opened at 236.5 and jumped to 239. Early smart money jumped on the over 236.5 and 237. On low limits, the book adjusted the total but the handle is at 60% on the under. The over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Detroit and we shouldn't be surprised to see this going over with both defenses at the bottom of the league in defensive metrics. This is a big number to hit and my model has this game at 231.6 mainly because of how inefficient the Kings offense has been in their last 6 games.

Gobert and Russell are questionable for Minnesota and the sharps didn't hesitate to jump on the +2 with OKC. The Thunder are playing .500 ball at home and much better than when on the road. They lost to Miami after coming home after a 5 game road trip and probably deserved better going 41/82 from the field. Minnesota lost their 3 games on the road and it hasn't been pretty.

We have a 3 game slate in the NHL and the cheapest favorite is at -180. The Wild moved up 70 pts against Chicago on low limits but who's going to bet that?

In CBB we have some movement this evening but the sharps are not on any of those games except for Youngstown State. They opened at -7 this afternoon and jumped to -9.5 by dinner time. I have this game closer to -7 however the early heavy interest in Youngstown State gave no choice to the book to move the number. Let's see what happens overnight.

To recap: Detroit over 239, OKC -2, Youngstown State -9.5

Good luck today

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