Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 16

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

The Grizzlies rolled over Portland. I think they played nice and didn't want to completely destroy them. Some late buyback on Portland brought the line down to a pickem. The 76ers, with a full team, lost by 5 at home vs a decimated Heat team. Arizona covers the opening and closing number, sucks if you had them at -25.5

Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings have a very young team and surprised many this year. I love their style of hockey and compete for every game. The Wings have been playing better than the Canes in the last 10 games however there is a huge talent gap between both teams. The Wings have a hard time scoring on teams that have above than average defense and they will face one of the best tonight. Market makers opened the Canes a -260 favourite early yesterday morning and sharp found some value on the Wings and hit the line a +220, +195 and +160. That is 90 pt drop since opening. Svechnikov and Aho are out and in covid protocols, which would explain the interest from the sharps. My NHL model has this line at -186 with both those studs out however Canes are missing more starters therefore I can quantify the value on the Canes at -163. The max limits are high on this game, meaning, sharps like where the line is.

VGK / NYI over

Vegas is the hottest team in the league right now. Max is on a scoring tear and nothing seems to stop him, not even the Bruins which are solid defensively, especially at home. Tonight they face Devils that don't know how to defend and allow 3.41 goals per game. Might be a long night for them since Vegas is averaging over 4 goals per game in their last 5. Both teams are 7-3 on the over in the last. Market makers opened this total at 5.5o -118 and heavy sharp interest on the over pushed the total to 6o -113. It's possible this total moves to 6.5. My model is projecting the total to 5.99. Hischier is out.

New York Islanders

Darn covid eh? This is a massive headache for books and sharps are looking in taking advantage. On my end, it's a headache to come up with accurate projections for each game but someone has to do it right? Bergeron will be joining Marchand on the covid protocol. Barzal is out also. Betonline opened this game with the Bruins a -129 yesterday morning and by this morning the Islanders were favourites at -119. 5dimes opened the Bruins a -135 favourites and now the islanders are a -118 favourite. At both books, the tickets and handle are all on the Islanders. My model has this Bruins favourite at -119 with Bergeron and Barzal out. We have value on the Bruins and I disagree with the sharp money on the Islanders.

There wasn't much movement in the NBA so no games will be covered.

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