Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 15, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: We got another win last night with the under in Boston. It got close but it was the right pick! Let's do it again today.

Tonight's sports lineup promises to be filled with drama, especially in the NBA, NHL, and college basketball. Let's dive into the line movements and betting trends shaping these games, offering insights for both casual and seasoned bettors.

NBA Highlights

Celtics vs. Magic: The Boston Celtics, having played just last night, are facing the Orlando Magic. Despite the back-to-back games, the Celtics aren't expected to heavily manage player loads. This could influence betting lines as the game approaches, considering the team's fatigue and performance potential.

Hawks vs. Raptors: The Atlanta Hawks are set to face the Toronto Raptors, seeking to avenge their recent loss. The betting line has been oscillating between -2 and -2.5, indicating a tight match where bettors are weighing recent performances and team dynamics carefully.

Wizards vs. Pacers: The Washington Wizards, hampered by injuries, are up against the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers, a hot favorite for tonight, have seen sharp bettors take a position at -8, with the line nudging to -8.5. The betting handle also heavily favors the Pacers. Moreover, the game's total opened at 254 and has moved to 258.5, with a significant tilt towards the over.

NHL Outlook

The NHL slate is less appealing to some due to the dominance of high favorites. Out of the six games tonight, four feature moneylines greater than -200. The most notable movement is seen in the Carolina Hurricanes vs. Nashville Predators match. The Canes, who played in Detroit last night and traveled back overnight, opened at -175 against the rested Predators. The line has since shifted, bringing the Canes to -165, reflecting bettors' reaction to the team's fatigue and travel.

College Basketball Scene

In college basketball, the spotlight is on the Gonzaga vs. UConn game. My model set the opening line at -4 for UConn, aligning perfectly with the market. Early money on UConn pushed the line to -6, but a subsequent buyback on Gonzaga brought it to -5. The betting handle is evenly distributed this morning. Interestingly, sharps took the over at 149.5, but the total has fluctuated significantly – opening at 152, dropping to 148.5, and climbing back to 150.5. Currently, 75% of the money is on the under, indicating a divergence between public sentiment and sharp action.

Game of the day:

Tonight's NBA matchup between the Indiana Pacers and the Washington Wizards is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair, as indicated by the sharp bettors' interest in the over 257.5 total points. The total has already moved to 258.5 and projections suggest it could soar to 260 or beyond.

Offensive Firepower

The Pacers, fresh off a loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, are in the midst of a five-game road trip. Their offensive prowess is undeniable, topping the league in points per game with an average of 127.6. This scoring efficiency is driven by their dominance in the paint, leading the league in field goal attempts, successful shots, and shooting percentage. Additionally, their three-point shooting ranks tenth overall, adding another layer to their offensive threat.

The Wizards, on the other hand, are hosting the Pacers following a loss to the New Orleans Pelicans. Despite a string of losses, their offense isn't to blame. Averaging 115.9 points per game, they rank tenth in the league, largely thanks to their effectiveness inside the paint. Their field goal shooting percentage stands at 48.2%, with impressive rankings in both attempts and made shots.

Defensive Struggles

However, it's on the defensive end where both teams falter significantly. The Pacers, despite being offensively gifted, suffer defensively, allowing an average of 125.4 points per game. Their main issue lies in the opponent's shooting percentage, ranking second-to-last in this regard.

Similarly, the Wizards' defensive woes are even more pronounced. They are the worst in the NBA in points allowed per game at 127.0, struggling notably with opponent field goal percentages. Additionally, their ability to secure defensive rebounds is the weakest in the league.

The Pace Factor

An intriguing aspect of this matchup is the pace of play. Both teams are the fastest in the NBA, with the Pacers leading at 104.2 possessions per game and the Wizards closely following at 103.8. This frenetic pace could very well push the game's total points over.

Key Player Spotlight

Jordan Poole of the Wizards, a significant contributor, is a game-time decision due to an ankle injury. His participation could further impact the scoring dynamics of the game.

Final Thoughts

With both teams exhibiting some of the league's most potent offenses but struggling defensively, this game is anticipated to be a high-scoring affair. While the question isn't whether it will be an 'over' game, bettors and fans alike are curious about the final number. Could we see it surpass the 280-point mark? Tonight's game will not only be a test of offensive capabilities but also an exploration of how high the scoring can go when two defensively challenged teams collide.

RECAP: Indiana over 258.5

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