Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 13, 2023

5 months ago

Anthony P

While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.

RECAP of yesterday's games: We skipped yesterday and we have no pick to review.

Today in the NHL, there's a notable stillness. The morning and overnight periods have been particularly quiet, with no significant line movements to discuss. This lull in activity provides a sharp contrast to the bustling scenes we're observing in the NBA and college basketball (CBB).

NBA Insights: Movements and Predictions

76ers on the Rise: The Philadelphia 76ers have seen a surge in betting interest, with the line moving from an opening of -10.5 to -12.5 in some markets. This indicates a strong confidence in their performance tonight. Additionally, there's a favorable outlook on the Maxey prop, with predictions leaning towards him exceeding 26.5 points.
Pelicans and Wizards' Dynamic: With Zion Williamson's status as questionable, the New Orleans Pelicans saw their line drop from -9.5 to -7.5, a reaction to the uncertainty surrounding his participation. Interestingly, the betting community seems divided, but the edge appears to lean towards the Washington Wizards, as indicated by the sharp betting patterns.
Bucks-Pacers Total Points Climbing: The total points for the Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers game has been on a steady rise, currently standing at 259, up from an opening of 256.5. The Bucks also saw their line move from -5.5 to -6.5, suggesting a growing confidence in their ability to outperform the spread.
Suns' Load Management Concerns: With the Phoenix Suns having played last night, there's anticipation of load management impacting their lineup. The line has adjusted accordingly, dropping from -3.5 to -2, reflecting the potential changes in their playing roster.

College Basketball Focus: Trends and Game of the Day

Rice Gaining Attention: In college basketball, Rice has garnered the most betting interest this morning. About 70% of the handle is on Rice, moving the line from -11.5 to -13. This shift indicates a strong belief in their ability to cover the spread.
Arkansas State's Favorable Shift: Arkansas State has received considerable betting interest since last night, with the line moving in their favor from +5.5 to +3.5. This shift suggests a growing confidence among bettors in their performance.
Utah State vs. Santa Clara: Utah State, opening as a 3.5-point road favorite against Santa Clara, has seen a shift in the market. With 80% of the money on the home team, the line has dropped to -1, indicating a strong belief in Santa Clara's capabilities.

Game of the Day: Rice vs. Incarnate Word

Our focus today is on the most popular game in CBB, taking place at Rice. Despite the sharp report showing support for the Owls, there's reason to approach this with a different perspective. Rice, while talented, has shown deficiencies in defense and a lackluster record against the spread. Incarnate Word, on the other hand, has a more favorable ATS record and has kept recent losses within a 10-point margin. Considering the unusual early start, which might lead to a slower game onset, taking the points with Incarnate Word could be the more strategic bet in this scenario.

As we delve into today's matchups across the NBA and CBB, these insights and trends offer a guide to navigate the betting landscape effectively. Remember, betting is not just about following the crowd but understanding the nuances and dynamics at play in each game.

RECAP: Rice -13

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