Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 11, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: The final two betting selections from last week didn't pan out, ending in quite disappointing outcomes. The last pick was particularly shocking, as it involved backing Denver in their home game. Surprisingly, they were soundly defeated by the Houston Rockets, a team that hasn't found much success in road games this season. What made this result even more remarkable was that the Nuggets, from the fifth minute of the first quarter, never once held a lead in the game – a truly unexpected turn of events!

The NBA offers a full plate today with 13 games on the schedule. Interestingly, sharp bettors have been relatively quiet, with focused attention on only four key games. The market's response to these bets has been sluggish, possibly due to the constraints of small maximum bet limits.

In Philadelphia, the 76ers have attracted most of the betting money and tickets, yet the line has unexpectedly shifted in favor of the Washington Wizards, moving from +13 to 11.5. This indicates a divided opinion among sharp bettors on this matchup.

The Toronto Raptors, known for their inconsistency, initially were underdogs against the New York Knicks, but the line has since narrowed. Despite the limited overall betting volume on this game, the majority of the money has been placed on the Knicks.

Game totals have been the most active segment in betting this season, with 10 out of 13 NBA games experiencing changes in their total points. In Atlanta, the total rose and then slightly fell after sharp betting on the under, reflecting the influence of sharp action on the market. The New York game witnessed the largest movement in game totals, with a surprising trend toward the over, despite both teams' strong defensive capabilities.

NHL and College Basketball: Steady NHL and Shifting College Lines

In the NHL, the day features four games, but unlike the NBA, there's been little to no movement in lines or total points, indicating a more stable betting environment.

College basketball presents more dynamic betting scenarios. The most bet game is at Robert Morris, where Delaware's line saw a slight decrease, but the total points dropped notably. This suggests a shift in expectations about the game's pace and scoring.

At Quinnipiac, despite the majority of the handle favoring them over Yale, the line moved in Yale's favor, hinting that the more informed bets are backing the visiting team.

Another interesting note is in San Francisco's game, where despite having four sharp bettors on the over, the total has only edged up by half a point, indicating a cautious market response.

Game of the day:

In today’s highlighted NBA matchup, the Brooklyn Nets visit the Sacramento Kings, a game that has garnered significant attention from sharp bettors. Initially pegged as a 5.5-point road underdog, the Nets have seen the line shift in their favor to 4.5, reflecting a rising belief in their potential to cover the spread.

Brooklyn's Offensive Surge and Head-to-Head Dominance

Brooklyn's recent offensive improvement has been a key factor in their success this season. Their historical performance against the Kings is noteworthy, with a solid 7-3 record both straight-up and against the spread in their last 10 encounters. This, combined with their impressive ability to cover the spread in recent road games, bolsters confidence in their chances tonight. Coming off a morale-boosting win against Washington, the Nets have momentum on their side, having secured six victories in their last seven games. Mikal Bridges’ emergence as a reliable scoring option has added to Brooklyn's offensive prowess.

Defensive Considerations and Kings' Explosive Offense

While Brooklyn’s defense has been generally effective, it has lacked the consistency the team desires. On the other side, the Kings have demonstrated their offensive explosiveness, especially with De'Aaron Fox in the lineup, scoring 120 points or more in numerous games this season.

The Matchup: Defensive Edge and Scoring Versatility

In this matchup, Brooklyn's superior defensive capabilities could be pivotal. With the ability to challenge key Kings players like Fox and Sabonis, the Nets might force other Sacramento players to step up, which could be a decisive factor. The Kings' defensive struggles provide an opportunity for the Nets, who excel in diverse scoring methods. Notably, Brooklyn leads the NBA in three-point shooting efficiency.

High-Scoring Expectations and Brooklyn’s Depth

Anticipated to be a high-scoring affair, this game highlights Brooklyn's balanced offensive attack and more consistent defense compared to Sacramento. The Nets' depth and the reliability of their role players give them an edge in a matchup where offense is likely to dominate.

Betting Recommendation

Considering the Nets' current form, their historical success against the Kings, and their superior defense and depth, Brooklyn emerges as a strong bet to cover the spread. Their efficient scoring, particularly from beyond the arc and in transition, coupled with a more reliable defense, makes them well-equipped to handle the Kings' offensive firepower. Betting on the Nets to cover the adjusted 4.5-point spread seems a sound strategy in what promises to be an engaging and high-scoring game. I agree with the sharps on this one!

RECAP: Brooklyn +4.5

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