Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 18, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: On Friday, our last play of the week was on the Pacers over 258.5. The game ended at 260 but that total moved a lot during the day so I hope you guys got good number.

In today's NHL 5-game slate, we're witnessing relatively quiet line movements, but there are still some noteworthy shifts. The Detroit Red Wings, Winnipeg Jets, and Dallas Stars emerge as the clear favorites in their matchups. However, the game in Calgary draws particular attention. The Florida Panthers, initially favored at -135, saw their line drop to -123. This change is intriguing, considering the Panthers dominate most of the betting handle, suggesting that sharp money might be leaning towards the Calgary Flames. However, it's worth noting that there is no significant sharp interest reported at the book for this game.

NBA: A Dynamic Court

The NBA presents a more active scenario with its 11-game schedule. The Minnesota Timberwolves, facing uncertainty with Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels' questionable status, saw their line plummet from -2.5 to a pick'em. This shift indicates a potential value opportunity in Minnesota if they play and the line remains unchanged, as per my NBA model.

In another interesting move, the Oklahoma City Thunder's line saw a significant jump, moving 1.5 points from its 9.5 opening line. Given the betting handles, it's anticipated that this line could extend to -11 for the Thunder.

College Basketball: Where the Sharp Money Moves

The college basketball scene is also bustling with activity, especially in two heavily wagered games. In Jacksonville, the home team's favoritism is evident as their line edged from -5 to -5.5. This move mirrors the high wagering activity observed in this game.

Meanwhile, in Michigan, the home team of Michigan State, despite being a substantial favorite against Oakland, is facing an interesting betting pattern. Oakland commands 55% of the tickets and 60% of the handle, yet Michigan State's line moved from -15.5 to -16.5, an intriguing shift given the betting statistics.

Spotlight on Eastern Michigan

The most significant line movement in the college basketball landscape is seen with Eastern Michigan. Opening as a -5 road favorite, the line surged to -8 late last night, marking the most substantial overnight movement in today's sports betting arena.

Tonight's game in Denver is shaping up to be a scorer's paradise, drawing keen interest from sports bettors, especially the sharps. According to the latest sharp report, three seasoned bettors have confidently backed the over 238, yet the total has shown little movement. This discrepancy between sharp actions and line movement presents an intriguing scenario for bettors.

Analyzing Team Dynamics

The Dallas Mavericks, currently with the 8th worst defense in the league, are pitted against the Denver Nuggets' formidable #3 offense. The Nuggets, led by Nikola Jokić, have the firepower to rack up significant points. Jokić, in a remarkable form that bolsters his MVP candidacy, is averaging 22.4 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 10.0 assists over his last seven games. Despite Denver's recent stumble against Oklahoma City, which ended their three-game winning streak, expectations are high for a strong bounceback, particularly in their offensive output.

On the Dallas side, the absence of a key player like Irving might affect their offensive production slightly, but they have consistently been involved in high-scoring affairs, especially on the road. With the total going over in six of their last seven games and 12 out of 15 away games, they've demonstrated a tendency to push the score up.

Model Prediction vs. Game Reality

My predictive model estimates the game's total points at 231.3, slightly below the line set by the bookmakers. However, the model doesn't always capture the nuances of in-game dynamics and player performances, especially in the case of an offensive powerhouse like Jokić.

Betting Recommendation: Taking the Over

Considering the offensive capabilities of both teams and their recent track records, this game in Denver is primed to be a high-scoring affair. The sharp betting insights, combined with the statistical trends of both teams, especially Dallas' tendency towards high-scoring games on the road, make a strong case for taking the over. Bettors looking for an edge in today's lineup should pay close attention to this matchup as it promises to be an exciting, point-heavy game.

RECAP: Denver over 238

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