Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 31, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: And just like that the month of August flew by. Sharps and model went 1-1 yesterday. I did agree with KC however not with Texas! The nonsense has started, the Rockies were a huge dog yesterday and beat Fried and the Braves. Let's get ready for more drama today.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The sharps have settled with these 5 picks as of 130m EST. The Sharp report was also just updated.

MINNESOTA -130
TAMPA BAY -172
OAKLAND OVER 8 -122
BALTIMORE OVER 8 -115
SEATTLE OVER 8.5 -111

The Twins saw their line go from -135 to -119. The sharps at the book still like the Twins however it seems that globally the Red Sox are getting most of the support. 72% of the handle is on the Boston however the tickets are 50/50. The betting model thinks that the current line is correct. The pitching match-up is pretty even however the Red Sox bullpen hasn't been up to its standards. The Twins are hot while the Boston won 2 of their last 10. I would back the Twins at home anytime based on their home and away splits.

Tampa is way overpriced as per the betting model and we find close to 15% EV on the Marlins. The line hasn't moved much and the handle is close to 50/50. The Marlins have been bad and if they don't have a top-tier pitcher on the mount I would never take them into consideration. Luzardo was disappointing yesterday and Rogers should be even worse today.

Oakland won3 straight for the first time this season. How bad is that eh? There is not enough value to consider the over 8 and this total should be moving at 8.5 by game time.

Seattle over 8.5 is in agreement with the sharps and model. The model has this total at 9.35. The total did move from 8 to 8.5 last night and we are seeing continuous money on the over. The handle is close to 90% and the book moved the juice from +102 to -115 since 8 am this morning. We saw the Mariners bats come to life yesterday with 9 runs in a ballpark where the under has been dominating this season. The Tigers will be one of the biggest contrarian picks this evening which makes them appealing taking into consideration that both teams hitting metrics are close versus LHP.

Good luck today

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