Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 26, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: So much for the Cubs eh? They laid an egg and Stroman was awful! Sharps, model, myself all OVER the Cubs!! We will take the loss.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

Sharps have been very active in baseball and football overnight. I will put the NFL aside since I hate to be in the preseason. When I saw the Niners drop at -2.5 I had to hold myself not to bet them and it was a good thing.

As per the Sharp Report, the sharps like the following games:

CLEVELAND +101

The model is showing -8% EV on the Guardians today. Sharps moved the line from +105 to -111 overnight.

SAN DIEGO -172

The EV is also negative on the Padres. Sharps pushed this line from -165 to -175. The Padres have lost both games vs the Guardians, 2 of 4 versus the Nationals, and 2 of 3 versus the Marlins. I have zero interest in betting on the Padres!

WHITE SOX -166

Once again, there is no value in this favorite. The sharps at the book might have hit this game however the number went down from -173 to -161. VIPs were on the White Sox yesterday and that game gave me heartburn. Tonight they face a Diamondback team that is slumping and they weren't even able to beat the A's with Gallen on the mount. I like the WS here but I'm not paying this price.

WASHINGTON -126

How can we not back up the Nationals right?? They took 2 games from the Padres and last night they Mariners as a+276 dog. Now they face an awful Reds team that lost 4 straight to the Phillies and 2-10 Minor is on the mount! Cavalli will make his MLB debut and he's been solid in AAA with an ERA of 3.67. The model shows no value on the Nationals.

PITTSBURGH OVER 8.5 -102

This total already moved to 9. The MLB betting model has this total projected at 9.39 therefore we did have some value at 8.5. The under is 18-8-3 last 29 games, Wheeler is on the mount. the Pirates are averaging 1.7 R/9 in their last 5 games versus RHP and have a BA of 1.41. If you think the Phillies will put up 9 runs by themselves then go ahead and bet this over if not stay far from it since I don't expect any scoring from the Pirates.


Good luck today

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