Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 25, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: We skipped Wednesday. There wasn't much to write about.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

It's Thursday night football and the MLB slate will be a small one. The sharps are been active in both sports. Let's take a quick look at the games on the sharp report:

MLB:

HOUSTON UNDER 8 +102
PHILADELPHIA UNDER 8.5 -103
CUBS +108

NFL:

KANSAS CITY +3
SAN FRANCISCO -2.5

The KC game is a weird one. They opened a -1.5 fav just to see the line swing to +3 on the same day. There was no sharp indication at the book on the Packers. However at +3, KC saw some sharp action, and the line was pushed down to +1. The Tickets are 50/50 however 80 of the handle is on the Packers. Love is playing well and Mahome won't play.

The Niners opened a 3 pts fav just to see the line move to -4 and down to -1.5. Once again, all on the same day. By end of the day, the sharp blasted the -1.5 to -3.5 and -4 yesterday. The majority of the starters will play on both teams and we gotta love the Niners in this spot however I would prefer the -3 over the -4.

In the MLB, the sharps and model don't agree on anything yet. 6 of the 9 games will carry big lines, including a -310 for the Phillies and a huge -405 with the Mets. Anything can happen in baseball folks, just look at the Nationals on Wednesday.... +270 winner!! Oh, and the Cubs are up 3-0. Anyway, ill keep an eye on the moves and I will update this article in the morning...

UPDATE:

THE CUBS!!! If you take a look at the sharp report, you will see them in the sharp money section + best model plays + tier1 picks, and in the book liabilities. 80% of the tickets are on St Louis and the handle is also in St Louis's favor (~60%)

The Cubs have been great last 10 games going 7-3 and they already took 2 games from the Cardinals. I really like the pitching matchup here where Hudson hasn't been good with an ERA of over 6 in his last 3 starts and a WHIP close to 2. He's a GB pitcher but the winds might cause him additional issues today.


Good luck today

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