Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 23, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: It's 3-0 for the Yankees top of the 6th. We expected the Yankees to score none tonight while many thought the Mets would light up German. There is still lots of baseball left but it seems my gut was right on the under.....

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

Much bigger slate on Tuesday. Monday was a real snoozer. Some early movers in the global markets were the Orioles from +148 to +130, LA Angels from +166 to +155 and. Cleveland from +148 to +132

At the book, the sharps smashed the following:

MILWAUKEE OVER 7 -106
CLEVELAND +144
LA ANGELS OVER 7 -111
PHILADELPHIA UNDER 8.5 -122

In Los Angeles, the total is still at 7 however it moved from -106 to -120. It should move to 7.5. The MLB betting model has this game at 7.61.

In San Diego, I locked in a bet on the Padres at -152 however the line is moving the other way and the sharps are on Cleveland. As per my model, there is value in the Padres.

In Tampa, the sharps and model are aligned on the over 7. The juice moved from -110 to -125 and we should also see this number move to 7.5. There is close to 10% EV on the over however that will disappear if the total moves to 7.5. Suarez doesn't go deep and the bullpen has an ERA of close to 6 in their last games. Kluber has an ERA of 6.11 last 3 starts. He's allowed 12 ERs in his last 17 IPs and he's allowed more hits than innings thrown with 21. The Angel's offense is always a concern and scored 4 runs versus the Tigers. I would support the over if Ohtani is back in the lineup.

In Philadelphia, the sharps pushed the total down from 8.5 to 8. The model has this game at 8.33 therefore there isn't any value.

Good luck today

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