Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 22, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: The Phillies were a disaster. They abused Butto and Gibson was just as bad. From 4-0 to a 4-4 tie. Then they take a 3-run lead and still couldn't close the game. The Pirates gave up 19 runs to one of the worst offenses in the league and took another loss. The game in Cleveland was PPD. Sharps go 0-2 on Sunday.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

It's a small slate on Monday. The sharps and model have yet to agree on a game(s). We haven't seen much movement in the markets on Sunday. The Rays jumped 15 pts from -175 to -190. The Twins went from -188 to -198 and that's about it. No moved on totals and we have yet to see a total posted in the Cubs game since they can't figure out the wind yet.

Here is an early look at the MLB model. We continue to see favorites overvalued which opens value on underdogs.

UPDATE:

The latest update of the sharp report shows 4 plays that the sharps are on:

KANSAS CITY UNDER 8 -110
NY METS OVER 7 -122
KANSAS CITY +130
LA DODGERS UNDER 7.5 -105

KC's total did drop from 8.5 to 8 however the money lines moved at +139. There is no value on the under at 8 and there is a small value on KC at +139.

As for the Mets over 7, that total moved to 7.5, and the model supports the over with a projected run total of 8.35. The Mets bats would need to do all the work here. The Yankee's offense is almost none existent. Remove the 8 runs versus Tampa and they went on a run of 5 ER in their last 6 games or 7 runs last 7 games if we include the 4 runs from Sunday's win versus the Blue Jays. Now they face Scherzer and a rested Diaz. No thank you! German has been decent and the Mets might start to show little fatigue after 2 huge series but their offense is firing on all cylinders. I'll stay away from this total just because I don't like the Yankee's offense.

Good luck today

Join Discord and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games