Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 20, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: Pending is the over in Tampa Bay and the Royals are up 2-0 in the bottom of the 6th. We have a VIP play on the Royals and I hope they don't fall apart. I also didn't like the over today and I explained why in yesterday's write-up.
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.
The sharp report has 2 MLB and 2 NFL plays for tomorrow. More will be added overnight or in the morning. The model doesn't like any of the sharp plays.
One of them is the CUBS at +125, that line dropped to +115 already. The other play is the Angels at -148. The Angels were also hit at other books at around -130.
As for the NFL, I don't run my model in the preseason since it's almost impossible to know whos playing and whos not. And if starters are playing, for how long? Coaches don't share much info and it's a pain in the ass to follow the news and its accuracy.
Talking with the boys at the book this evening, there is one game that's been a real pain in the ass for them and it's in Buffalo. Denver opened a -1 favorite back on Aug 15th. The book, at that point, doesn't really give a shit because the betting limits are capped at $500 and if a sharp bettor starts re-betting the low limit they just take the game off the board. That's what happened here. The game was taken off the board within 4 hours of being open and the book reopened the game making the Bills a 2.5 -125 favorite.
Information is key in the preseason and that is where the sharps have a potential edge on some books. It was not until 9 hours ago that coach Hackett confirmed that Wilson and most of the starters won't play. However, earlier this week coach McDermott did say that Allen and most of the starters will play against the Broncos.
My point, this brings us to let's say yesterday afternoon when word started going around about who wouldn't play for the Broncos, but by then the line had already moved to -6 -116 for the Bills. We have no idea how long the starters will play for the Bills however Mcdermott usually sits his starters in the last preseason game.
The total moved from 39.5 to 42 and this is where I believe we can take advantage of an inflated total. I doubt the Broncos will get much offense going versus the Bills and we are not sure how much time the Bills starters will play. The Bronco's defensive unit is elite finished 3rd in rushing TD allowed, 3rd in points per game allowed, and 3rd in red zone defense last year. We might see the Bills do their thing in the first quarter and a portion of the second quarter but this can turn out to be a low-scoring game after that. Different sets of sharps are on the total, a set on the over 39.5 and another on the under 42. Key numbers for totals have been on the move with the recent increase in scoring but 42 is a shitty number to bet on since 1.56% of games have landed on 42 between 2007-2017 and 1.95% between 2018-2021.
I am staying away from this game however after all the work i've done looking into the numbers and news, ill for sure be watching my Bills and see how many got sucked into this trap. My lean would be the Broncos at +7 or better and the under 43 or better.
Good luck today
Join Discord and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games