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Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 8, 2022

Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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It was a bad start for the Brewers yesterday. In a much-anticipated game where most of us had money on the Brewers and Burnes, we all got burnt including the sharps. As for the Pens, I wasn't a fan of that move from the sharps and my lean was on the Rangers.

There is too much to cover today therefore I will change the format.

In the NHL there is one game of interest and it's in St. Louis. 5dimes opened the Blues at -130 and sharps jumped on the Wild and its value and pushed the line to the Wild -115. Husso is projected and I'd be surprised to see Binnington in this game. MY NHL model has this game at -105 and I agree with the value on the Wild.

My model shows decent value on the Bruins tonight and by Tampa's recent play we have to consider the Bruins in your parlays.

Colorado opened at -195 at Betonline and the line adjusted at -175. There is no sharp interest in the Jets at the book. The way the Jets played versus Detroit last game they deserved to lose 6-1. I hope the Avs put 10 in and smash the Jets tonight however the way shit is going in the NHL don't be surprised to see the Sabres and Jets win outright tonight.

In the NBA it's that time of the year where I stop giving a fuck and just focus on totals and that odd spread game. Players sitting/resting, late minute scratches, teams not giving a fuck and giving up a 39 points leads ect...

The Raptors played last night therefore lookout for some weak ass millionaires sitting this one out. The line already dropped from -15 to -11. The Heat went from -4.5 to +1.5, lookout for injuries there also they have 6 players questionable for this game. As for the Lakers, Westbrook should also be out tonight, Anthony is questionable and the line moved from -8 to -5 and we should see this line continue to drop. The Wizards continue to get interest on the over, last game I bet the over and those lazy-ass bastards stopped scoring in the second half after a high-scoring 1st half. They are playing the Knicks tonight and the total went from 218.5 to 225. My model has this game at 216 and disagrees with the interest on the over. Both teams suck offensively and I will support the under in this game.

It's day 2 of the MLB season and there is not much movement. The weather is an issue this time of the year and the books are very careful by posting totals late, keeping low max bet limits open for longer than usual. Scherzer is pitching today and the money is going the other way. The Mets opened at -200 and the line is now at -154.

The Cubs are getting some interest versus Woodruff. The Brewers went from -177 to -153. The Weather continues to be an issue in Chicago and the wind is blowing in at 13MPH.

The new-look Rangers have also received interest today. Some of my projection systems have the Blue Jays right under the Dodgers in power rankings. Berrios is starting today Betonline made him a -177 however 5dimes opened a -158 and shaved off 20 pts from Betonline's opening. Fanduel has the Jays at -180 which is stupid at this point. My model has the Jays at -193 and there is +7% EV on them.

Good luck today

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