Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 7, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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Lots of weird shit happening in the NHL and NBA. I can't explain it. The good teams are regressing, the bad teams keep on pilling up upsets. The Redwings win back to back games versus Boston and Winnipeg. Overs in the NBA look like locks after the first half just to see them stop scoring in the second half. Bankroll management or not, these losses take a toll on you. The best remedy for this, take a couple of days off and back at it again.

Sharps were right about the under in Chicago. The Bulls suck on back to back games and probably won't even break 100 pts as I'm writing this.

The Clippers were cruising and up by 25 and then crashed! Typical freaking NBA as of late. The Clippers opened a 3 pt underdog and the line closed at -7.5 with the Suns sitting some players. The Clippers ended up winning by 4 and you got screwed if you wagered the Clippers after 315pm.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

The Cubs are once again in rebuild mode. The Brewers destroyed the Cubs last year and won 11 of the last 12 games. Hendricks is regressing and we shouldn't expect much from him this season. He was all over the place last year, from a bad start to the season, to looking unbeatable to then again looking terrible. The Brewers will have their stud on the mount and I've got my money on Yelich having a solid year. He can't be worst than last year. The Brewers are stacked in the bullpen and will be dominant from top to bottom. Milwaukee opened a -140 favourite at 5dime on April 5th and steady sharp action pushed the line to -170. 88% of the handle is on the brewers. My model has this game at -175 and I agree with the sharp interest in the Brewers.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

If the playoffs should start tomorrow these two would be facing each other in the first round. The Pens had a chance to redeem themselves on March 29th after losing in New York 4 days before however they laid an egg and lost 3-2 on home ice. The Rangers dominated puck possession in both games and it looked like the Pens had no answer for the Rangers. Even with the 9th worst powerplay on the road, the Pens have been excellent on the road this year losing only 9 games. Igor and the Rangers have been an elite team at home and only lost 7 games at home this year. This will definitely be a playoff-type of game. Betonline opened the Rangers at -121 Wednesday afternoon and the sharps jumped on the Pens dropping the line down to -101. My NHL model has the game around the current line therefore the numbers have adjusted towards my projections. I really don't have an opinion on this game but I would lean towards the Rangers. They've been the better team as of late beating top-ranked teams in their last 10 while the Pens just lost back to back games to Colorado.

In the NBA we have some action but nothing crazy. The Bucks went from -4.5 to -5.5. The Celtics are on a back to back and just like the Suns, we will have to look at some players potentially resting. The Nuggets line is on the move also. They opened at -2 and they moved to -3. This will be another big test for Memphis on the road without Morant. 5dimes was the first to open a line on the Warriors. Their initial number was -10.5 until Betonline opened their line at -12.5, 5dimes immediately adjusted to -12.5.


Good luck today

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