Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 6, 2022
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
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That game in Florida between the Leafs and Panthers was unbelievable. The Sens did exactly what they were supposed to do and sharps were right on that one. As for New Jersey, Georgiev suited up and it explained everything related to the drop in the Rangers line. He played very well and the Rangers cruised to a 3-1 victory and are now only 2 points behind the Canes. Cavs / Magic over was a game I was also following because I just couldn't understand the interest from the sharps. They were right and I was wrong
In the NHL there is minimal movement overnight and this morning. If you are looking in betting on the Blue Betonline has the best line at -215. The other books are in the -240 to -250 range. The Blues opened at -240 at Betonline however dropped to -215.
Apart from that game, there is nothing much. Betonline was soft to open the Vegas Golden Knights at -144 while other books opened at -175 to -185. The line adjusted to -161.
LA CLIPPERS
The Suns have cooled off recently losing 2 of their last 3 games. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 and lost to OKC by an ATS margin of 35 points and MEM by 15.5 pts. Should we worry? Not really! The Clippers are 11-3 ATS in it's last 14 games when playing at home against Phoenix but 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Suns will be playing on no rest and they are 10-3 SU and 7-6 ATS in that spot. By now you guys know how much I don't like to play teams on a b2b. We will have to keep an eye on the Suns lineup tonight. In the meanwhile, the sharps found value on the Clippers at +3. The line opened early this morning and it took less than an hour for the line to go from -3 to 0. We might see some buyback on the Suns later this afternoon or when more info on potential players resting. My model has this game at a pickem therefore I support the sharp interest in the ClippersBOSTON / CHICAGO UNDER The trends are really strong on the under in this game and it can be a motivational factor for the sharps. My NBA model has this total at 222 and it's a little lower than the 224.5 opening number at some market makers. I would not touch the Bulls spread, they are on a b2b and terrible ATS vs a team with a winning record. The Bulls have played 4 straight unders in the second leg of back-to-back games and their possession per 48 min drops considerably pushing a game with a slower pace. In the last 10 head-to-head games, the average score is 218 points and 11 of the last 13 games have gone under when played in Chicago. The total opened at 225.4 overnight and it dropped to 223 and 221.5 this morning. The total is now in line with my projections and I also support the under in this game. Good luck today
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