Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 5, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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The sharps did great yesterday with the Bruins and the Leafs. Wasn't as easy as I anticipated for Boston however they won in OT. As for the Leafs, they totally dominated the Lighting.

OTTAWA SENATORS

The Habs are back home from a 4 game road trip where they had to face Tampa, Carolina and Florida. They lost their easiest match-up in Jersey but won in Tampa bay... go figure. In our VIP discord, we were chatting about how I don't like betting on teams back from a road trip and this will also be the case tonight for Montreal. The Canadiens are 0-5 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and even if on paper tonight's game looks like a coin flip I still anticipate a loss for the Habs. The sharps and my model agree with me. Market makers opened the Habs as a -124 favourite and sharp money moved in on the Sens moving the line and making them now a -115 favourite. My NHL model has the Sens favourite at -110 and the fatigue factor is not included in there. Anton and Jake are confirmed for tonight.

NEW JERSEY

We rarely find underdogs in the Overnight Grind and it's unusual to see big drops whenever sharps do bet on underdogs. Tonight we showcase the Devils once again since the line dropped close to 40% in their favour. Shesterkin hasn't been confirmed yet and there is a possibility we see Georgiev but I doubt it since the Rangers have a day off tomorrow. The Rangers went from a -189 favourite down to -150. The Devils were steamed at +170, +150 and +145. 90% of the handle is on the Rangers! Strome is questionable tonight and that is all for injuries. New Jersey has done well at home this year playing 1 game over .500 and giving most of their opposition a tough matchup. Fatigue can also be an issue for them tonight, they are 1-9 in their last 10 games in a 3rd game of a 3rd game in 4 nights. They are also in a 4in6 spot. My NHL model has the Devils as the top value tonight with a +14% EV and I understand the value offered here but the damage was done and all the value is gone.

CLEVELAND / ORLANDO OVER

Some ppl in my circle are saying that the Cavs will not be making the playoffs this year. That would be a shame. They had a great start and their defense was the major part of their success. Mobley is now out till mid-April and that won't help them. The under is 8-2 last 10 games in head-to-head matchups and they played each other twice this year and both games went under. Why the sudden interest on the over today? I have no idea! The Magic just went on back-to-back games scoring under 90 points and it won't get easier versus the 7th best aDRTG team in the league. With Allen and Mobley out we can expect less offense from the Cavs. Market makers opened the total at 214 overnight and it got slammed on low max bet limits. The over accumulated 90% of the handle and forced the books to move the total to 221. My NBA model has this total projected at 211 and I strongly disagree with the sharp interest in the over.


Good luck today

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